Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 031119

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
619 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

...New AVIATION...

(Today and tonight)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

Little in the way of change in the pattern today will lead to a very
similar forecast to that of yesterday. An upper low centered over
central Montana early this morning will move slowly eastward to a
position near the Montana/Dakotas border at the end of the day. The
forecast area will remain between an upper ridge to the east and an
upper trough to the west, the latter being the southward extension
of the Montana upper low. Forcing from the western trough will
remain well to the west of the forecast area, thus a continuation of
fair weather is expected through tonight. The eastward progression
of the upper low will induce weak surface cyclogenesis across
southeastern Colorado today with a very modest tightening of the
surface pressure across the South Plains area resulting in a slight
uptick in wind speeds relative to yesterday. Finally, progged 1000-
500 mb thickness values are basically identical to yesterday
suggesting today`s highs will be very close as well. Overnight
conditions continue to favor mostly clear skies, light winds, and
near-normal temperatures.


(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

Geopotential heights will continue to gradually decrease on Tuesday
as the mid/upper-level ridge attenuates and is shifted east from a
shortwave trough pivoting over the north-central Great Plains. The
response from the mass fields will be similar to what has been
observed throughout the days prior with a slackened pressure
gradient and therefore diffuse surface troughing draped across the
CWA. As the aforementioned shortwave trough continues to pivot
eastward, a weakly baroclinic cold front will move into the CWA late
Tuesday night (especially across the Caprock whereas the front may
be slower-moving through the Rolling Plains). Post-frontal winds
will remain light and quickly veer to the east as it loses its
baroclinity. The broadly cyclonic flow encroaching the CWA will also
shift the monsoonal fetch towards the TX/NM state line while
becoming southwest-to-northeast oriented as steering flow veers,
with low chances for rain showers developing across the extreme
southwestern TX PH on Tuesday afternoon and expanding across the
western zones into Wednesday. Mixed-layer theta-e advection will be
weak due to the anemic westerlies aloft as the core of the shortwave
trough remains northeast of the CWA by at least 500 tangential
miles, yielding less than 500 J/kg of surface-based and mixed-layer
CAPE. Most updrafts will struggle to reach heights high enough to
generate lightning, with any thunderstorm that materializes having a
short life span on Wednesday. Total QPF is expected to remain light
for this event, with rainfall totals generally around one-quarter of
an inch or less through Thursday morning.

PoPs will dwindle heading into Thursday as the cyclonic flow shifts
over the eastern third of the U.S., with global NWP guidance in fair
agreement of a cutoff low positioning over the Sea of Cortez which
should keep chances for any rainfall west of the CWA. Another
frontal passage will be possible towards the end of the upcoming
week as a substantial shortwave trough rotates southward out of
Manitoba and into the Great Lakes region, though frontolysis may be
underway as it approaches the CWA after becoming far removed from
the amplified flow aloft. Seasonable weather will then follow
heading into next weekend with the possibility of renewed rain
shower and thunderstorm chances by late Sunday into early next week
as global NWP guidance indicates a weak shortwave trough digging
into the Desert Southwest. Confidence in this is low and have
therefore kept the blended PoPs for the D7/D8 period.



(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

VFR conditions to persist through the TAF period.




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