Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 012345
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
645 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022

An upper level ridge is over the central part of the country with an
upper low centered over Idaho and Wyoming. Another upper low is over
Northern Mexico. Similar temperatures as yesterday are expected for
today with highs mostly in the 80s. Low temperatures tonight will be
in the 50s and 60s. High temperatures on Sunday may be a little
cooler than today with surface winds becoming more easterly. Low
temperatures tomorrow night will range from the 40s in the higher
elevations of the mountains to the 60s along the Rio Grande and
Lower Trans Pecos. No precipitation is expected in the short term.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022

Monday, the upper ridge will continue breaking down and shunting
east as a large trough continues driving into the Dakotas before
digging southeast to the MS Valley by Wednesday evening.  As this
happens, thicknesses/temperatures will continue decreasing, and
should come in at or below normal Monday afternoon.  Highs should
remain at or below normal the rest of the week, assisted by a weak
cold front due in sometime Wednesday night.  Saturday, highs could
struggle to get out of the 70s most locations.  Lows will follow a
similar trajectory, oscillating a degree or so around normal each
night.  NBM has been doing a good job on temperatures lately, and we
can`t find a reason/opportunity to deviate from them.

Rain chances continue inching up each day.  The trough parked over
northern Sonora is still forecast to phase w/the aforementioned
larger trough before redeveloping over the desert southwest later in
the week.  Height falls will combine w/upslope flow and diurnal
heating for convection developing as early as Tuesday afternoon over
the northwest zones. Chances will spread east and south Wednesday
afternoon, and continue Thursday/Friday as the front moves through
the area.  Best chances into the weekend will be over the higher
terrain out west, closer to the trough near the AZ/Sonora border.
Ensembles, especially the ECMWF and CMC, show a gradual increase in
PWATs into the extended, bolstering confidence in increasing chances
of convection as the weekend approaches.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022

VFR with some mid clouds drifting across the Trans Pecos. Gusty SE
wind from the afternoon starting to drop off... expect will see
light wind tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               58  86  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 57  83  55  81 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   60  82  59  81 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            59  83  56  82 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           57  76  55  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    56  82  53  81 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    50  78  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     59  84  56  82 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   60  84  57  82 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     60  85  56  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...72


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