Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 031820
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
220 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022


.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)

Latest analysis shows low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast
(remnants of Ian), with a weak cold front stretching back into
northern Florida, and surface high pressure over the Great Lakes
region. At the upper levels, there is a cut-off low over the Mid-
Atlantic, and another one over the northern plains. Light northerly
flow across Florida is continuing to filter in drier air, which is
also shown clearly in the upper air soundings. Despite temps in the
mid to upper 80s, dew points are only in the 60s so it continues to
feel quite pleasant. While a few stray showers can`t be completely
ruled out along the east coast metro today, most of the shower
activity should remain well offshore.

Partly cloudy conditions expected tonight with seasonably cool temps
especially over the Interior and Gulf coast. Overnight lows will
range from the lower 60s around the lake, to upper 60s and lower 70s
elsewhere.

Weakening frontal boundary will slowly drop south across the area on
Tuesday. While forecast soundings show the upper levels moistening
up a bit, there should still be plenty of dry air in place in the
low and mid levels, so any precip will be limited during the
afternoon. High temps will be a few degrees cooler than today, only
reaching the low to middle 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)

Models depict a an area of low pressure developing over the mid
Atlantic waters, with an associated sfc boundary lingering around
the Florida peninsula through the end of the work week. This feature
may provide a slight increase in moisture and some air mass
instability for an uptick in showers each afternoon. But the overall
atmospheric profile will still favor relatively dry and benign
weather conditions across much of SoFlo during the period.

A broad high pressure cell should spread across the E CONUS and keep
the area under generally northerly flow. This will help in
moderating temperatures, with afternoon highs likely remaining in
the low-mid 80s.

For the upcoming weekend, long range models are in fair agreement in
bringing a tropical wave feature around the Keys area, with its
northern portion carrying enhanced moisture across SoFlo on
Saturday. This added moisture may combine with the aforementioned
boundary influence to generate some thunderstorms during the
afternoon/early evening hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022

VFR through the 18Z TAF period. Northerly winds around 10 kts
this afternoon becoming light and variable tonight. A stray
shower is possible this afternoon at east coast terminals, but
chances are too low to mention at any location.

&&

.MARINE...

A cold front associated with low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast
sagging slowly south across Florida early to mid week, along with a
tightening pressure gradient, will increase northerly swells over
the Atlantic waters. Borderline SCA criteria may be reached late
Tuesday night into Wednesday as seas rise to 6-7 feet. Generally
benign conditions are expected this week for the Gulf coast waters,
with seas generally 1-2 feet.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022

Rip current threat will increase this week along the Atlantic
beaches as northerly swell increases across the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            71  86  71  85 /  20  10  20  30
West Kendall     69  86  69  86 /  20   0  20  20
Opa-Locka        71  86  70  85 /  10  10  20  30
Homestead        70  85  69  84 /  20  10  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  72  86  72  84 /  10  10  20  30
N Ft Lauderdale  71  85  71  83 /  10  10  20  30
Pembroke Pines   70  85  70  84 /  10  10  20  30
West Palm Beach  70  84  70  83 /  10  20  30  20
Boca Raton       71  86  71  85 /  10  10  30  30
Naples           67  83  66  84 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/BEACHES...CMF
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...ATV


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