Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 040536
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1036 PM PDT Mon Oct 3 2022

.Updated Aviation Discussion.

.DISCUSSION...As stratus begins to move back inland for the night,
the forecast looks to be well on track. A nearly identical day to
yesterday will be in store for the region. Notes on the forecast
can be found in the previous discussion below, with the main
message being that we are monitoring for the potential of another
offshore wind event towards the middle of next week (mainly of
importance for fire weather and those who do not enjoy the coastal
stratus).

&&

.AVIATION...04/06Z TAFs...IFR/LIFR marine stratus and fog are
widespread over the coastal waters, the beaches and into coastal
valleys. These low ceilings are expected to persist through most of
the TAF period, although the coastal valleys could see improving
conditions after 21z.

Elsewhere, VFR will continue through the TAF period, the exception
will be in the Umpqua Basin, including Roseburg where ceilings could
hover on the borderline between IFR and MVFR towards 15z. Recent
satellite imagery shows the marine stratus slowly moving further
inland, but it looks like it may not reach Roseburg until 15z. The
marine layer is expected to be shallow with IFR/MVFR ceilings
lasting only a few hours. -Petrucelli


&&

.MARINE...Updated 1000 PM Monday, 3 October 2022...Light south
winds and low seas are expected into Tuesday, though marine stratus
and fog will be widespread. Fog could occasionally limit visibility
to a mile or less. A thermal trough will redevelop along the coast
on Wednesday. This will result in increasing north winds into Friday
with steep seas possible south of Cape Blanco. -Petrucelli

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 445 PM PDT Mon Oct 3 2022/

Updated Aviation Discussion.

DISCUSSION...03/12Z NAM/GFS/EC in.

It will be dry through early next week over the Medford forecast
area...except for occasional drizzle in the marine layer through
Thursday.

Clear skies prevail across most of the land portion of the Medford
forecast area this afternoon, but there is a lot of marine
stratus over the coastal waters, along the coast, and hanging on
in the coastal valleys. It will spread inland again tonight,
probably getting into the Umpqua Basin beyond Roseburg.

A weak omega block is in place over the area with the ridge axis
just inland from the coast. This block will progress slowly east
through Tuesday night. The eastern anchor low of the block will
break down, then the ridge will retrograde Wednesday through
Friday, with the ridge axis moving back offshore Friday. The ridge
will remain offshore through next weekend. A short wave will ride
over the top of it Sunday night into Monday, and this wave will
dig a long wave trough into the intermountain states Tuesday. This
will, in turn, pump up the offshore ridge.

Overall, this means that the current weather pattern will persist
over most of the area with not much change through early next week.
It will be dry with wide diurnal variations in temperature. The
afternoons will be quite warm with cool nights. However, changes
in the marine layer will provide some variation over the coastal
waters, along the coast, in the coastal valleys, and in the Umpqua
Basin. Expect the marine layer depth to increase as the upper
ridge progresses inland, so marine stratus will make more progress
inland in the overnight hours, mostly in the Umpqua Basin. This
will make for cooler temperatures in those areas. However, when
the upper ridge moves back offshore Friday, a low level easterly
wind pattern will develop, and the marine stratus will retreat
back to the coastal waters. If the current EC solution verifies,
there will be a fairly strong easterly wind event early next week.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
CA...None.
Pacific Coastal Waters...None.
&&

$$


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