Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 020220
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
920 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022

.UPDATE...
(Issued 920 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022)

Overall no major changes have been made to the going forecast.
Continue to expect upstream mid-level clouds to move in from the
northwest tonight. Will still need to monitor the potential for
patchy dense fog into early Sunday morning; however, the increasing
cloud cover overnight should help limit the development of widespread,
dense fog.

Anderson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 247 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022)

Tonight through Sunday night:

High clouds continue to stay west this afternoon, but could see
some creep in overnight along with some lower stratus that looks
to develop behind a weak backdoor cold front. The latest satellite
imagery shows the stratus behind the front all the way back up
toward Lake Superior. The 12z HREF suggests these lower clouds to
spread in overnight. With the potential for increased cloud cover,
can expect to see a bit warmer overnight temps with lows only
dipping into the mid to upper 40s. However, do not have the
highest of confidence of seeing complete cloud cover as some
models suggests, thus breaks in clouds will be possible and temps
could end up dropping a few degrees more than forecast.
Additionally with some clear pockets, there will be potential to
see some fog development again, especially inland areas generally
along and west of the I- 90/39 corridor. Again confidence is not
real high given the cloud cover, but the potential is there.

Otherwise with the high pressure meandering and building around the
Great Lake regions, expecting fairly quiet conditions to continue
Sunday, but temps are looking to be a few degrees cooler as a weak
surge of cold air pushes into the area in the wake of today`s weak
front. But still looking at highs in 60s for Sunday under mostly to
partly sunny skies. Clouds may move back in overnight Sunday as a
weak ripple of mid-level vorticity looks to work its way down the
ridge across WI. This may be enough energy to spur a few very light
showers overnight, but it will be a battle again some drier air.
Otherwise, Sunday night lows will be in the 40s.Wagner

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 247 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022)

Monday through Saturday:

Monday the axis of the upper-level ridge slowly shifts over WI and
begins a warming a trend across southern WI for the first half of
the week. Looking at temps to warm in the upper 60s to low 70s
Tuesday and Wednesday as southerly flow increases as the high shifts
east and breaks down.

Continue to see a strong signal for a pattern change mid to late
week as a trough digs across the northern Central Plains and Upper
Midwest. EPS and GEFS suggests this system to bring a good push
of arctic air across the region with highs only in the 50s to even
the 40s, especially later in the week. Overnight temps look to be
even colder and there is a consistent signal for the potential
for widespread frost condition and even a hard freeze in spots,
especially north of I-94. Additionally with this pattern change,
will likely see our next chance at some precip, granted most
models keep things fairly dry so chances may be limited, along
with some brisk autumn winds.

Wagner

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 920 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022)

VFR conditions prevail this evening with north-northeast winds
across most terminals. There is still some potential for the
development of fog overnight and into Sunday morning that we will
need to monitor. Between 09-13Z it does look like we should see
the development of some low-end MVFR stratus across most
terminals. Models have come into better agreement with this so
have included mentions with this evenings TAF update. These lower
ceilings should mix out around/after 18Z Sunday. Otherwise expect
winds to remain primarily northeast on Sunday, then turning more
easterly Sunday night.

Anderson

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 247 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022)

Light northeasterly winds will give way to more northerly winds
as they pick up through evening behind the passage of a weak,
backdoor cold front that pushed down across the lake today.
With winds picking up overnight, expecting waves to build and
small craft conditions are possible across our nearshore
overnight through Sunday morning. Otherwise, this front will help
reinforce the high pressure as it builds southward across the
northern fringes of the Great Lakes overnight into Sunday. The
back edge of the high will track across Lake Michigan and will
bring the return of weaker northeast to easterly winds across the
open waters of Lake Michigan through Sunday afternoon as the
center of the high drifts further south. Expect influence from the
slow exiting high to continue through the remainder of the
weekend and into the start of next week with winds becoming more
southerly by Monday.

Wagner

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 3 PM
     Sunday.

&&

$$

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