Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 222016
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
216 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Sunday...Forecast Confidence is High...

A broad ridge of high pressure extends from southern Wisconsin
down through Kansas. This ridge will drop south and leave southern
Wisconsin in southwest to westerly flow at the surface. Some high
level cloud cover may come through at times, but generally it
should be a seasonal weekend temperature-wise with highs around 40
to the mid 40s.

Sunday night through Monday night - Confidence...Medium
Low pressure is proggd to track east through southern Canada, north
of Lake Superior. A period of waa looks to be focused to our north
and northeast Sunday night into Monday morning. Monday looks to be
mild with a westerly flow. As we head into Monday night and the low
tracks further east, a trailing cold front will sweep through with a
shift in winds to the north or northeast. All in all this period
looks dry.

Tuesday and Tuesday night - Confidence...Low
The 22.00z model suite showed amazing agreement between the 3 major
models, which was a stark contrast to how things were trending the
last several days in the handling of this system. So amazing and
sudden consensus was noted in that specific run, however this far
out yet from the event that is not the final answer. This is illustrated
in the morning model runs where the GFS and GEM show a jump southeast
on the track showing a colder solution. Meanwhile the ECMWF shows
a similar solution to the 00z run. The message the models are saying
at this point is greater potential for rain or a mix in the a mix
or southeast trending to snow while the northwest cwa is seeing potential
for a longer period of colder temps/snow. Having said that, the resulting
spread from the perturbations remains high. the 06z run showed more
warmer tracks while the 12z run is solutions suggesting warmer tracks
are in the minority. Once the system comes onshore later Sunday or
Sunday evening we will get better sampling which should then result
in the best consensus and consistency taking shape. Once we get a better
handle on the track and if a colder track looks likely then the forecast
will start to trend more towards snow and less towards rain which the
blend is currently suggesting with more rain/less snow in our grids.
Bottom line, stay tuned!

Wednesday through Friday - Confidence...Medium
As the low pulls away, northwest winds will enhance CAA. Surface
ridging sets up for Wednesday night into Thursday. Some return
flow precip may evolve later Thursday into Friday but any of this
potential activity looks light and fairly disorganized.

&&

.AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...VFR conditions are expected through Saturday
evening with westerly flow in place across southern Wisconsin. Some
high level cloud cover is possible but nothing below 3kft.

&&

.MARINE...Winds will be off shore for the next few days as a ridge of high
pressure stalls out across the Mid-Mississippi River Valley region.
With the sustained westerly flow, waves will be on the increase across
the eastern portion of the lake for this weekend. There is the potential
for a strong low pressure system to approach the Great Lakes on Tuesday,
but confidence in track/impacts from the system are low at this point.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$
Tonight through Sunday/Aviation/Marine...Halbach
Sunday Night through Friday...Collar



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