Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 251935
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
235 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 217 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020)

Tonight and Monday Night:

Strong high pressure building across the Central CONUS has
brought plenty of cold Canadian air across the Upper Midwest with
850 mb temps holding steady below freezing today and will
continue into Monday. Looking at lows tonight to fall into the mid
20s to mid 30s and highs in the upper 30 mid 40s for Monday.

Biggest hindrance to our precip chances today is the dry air that
continues to day hold firm over the portions of south and central
WI early this afternoon. Nevertheless, still expecting things to
gradual moisten up through the evening as low-level moisture
advects up from the Gulf and pools along the boundary that extends
across the region. The cold air combined with limited moisture
pooling along a band of low-level/700 mb frontogenesis, should be
enough to spit out some light precip across portions of CWA
generally from a line from Monroe to Port Washington this
afternoon and evening. Latest observations already show some light
snow falling upstream in Juneau and Adams counties and expecting
it to spread into our CWA over next few hours.

Given there is not much synoptic forcing and limited moisture (PWATs
around 0.5 inch), not expecting much only some light snow across
these areas given temps hovering around freezing. Best chance to see
some accumulating snow will be in northwestern portions of the CWA
from Fond Du Lac to Lone Rock where RAP and HRRR soundings have
about a 200 mb deep (750-550 mb) saturated/isothermal layer on the
thresholds of the DGZ. Expecting most of the snow to melt on contact
with warmer surfaces, but could see some accumulations, generally
less than an inch, on grassy or elevated surfaces in this area.

Precip is then expected to spread east through the evening, but
model soundings continue to show portions of southeastern WI holding
onto that low-level dry layer, which would limit precip chances. If
the airmass is able to moisten up enough,especially given ongoing
northeasterly flow off the lake, any precip this afternoon/early
evening will likely be in the form of light rain given the warmer
temps closer to the Lake. Then as temps fall overnight and precip
tries to spread east, could see any precip transition from light
rain to rain/snow mix for southeastern areas.

Precip will gradually taper off through Monday morning as high
pressure continues to build into the Central Plains. Looking at
drier and slightly cooler conditions for Monday with highs in the
upper 30s to low 40s and overnight temps falling into the 20s.

Wagner

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 217 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020)

Tuesday through Sunday:

It is looking to be a quiet stretch of weather across southern WI
through the rest of the week with a series of high pressure making
their way across the region. The first one will push into the Upper
Midwest from the Central Plains on Tuesday. Then a weak surface low
skirting east across Canada on Wednesday will help push the high
out of the area. Then a trough and associated surface low will
develop over the Desert Southwest and lift into the Ohio River
Valley on Thursday, but it is looking to mostly miss our area to
south with precip chances. Then upper level ridging and another
surface high is expected to develop across the central CONUS in
the wake of that system for the end of the week into next weekend.
Also looking at warmer temps through the rest of the week with
high climbing into the 40s and 50s and overnight lows mostly in
the 30s.

Wagner

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 225 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020)

VFR ceilings continue as low-level dry air remains in place
across the area. However, a few pockets of lower MVFR ceilings are
sneaking into the area this afternoon. Expecting to see these
lower ceilings become more widespread through the evening as the
environment tries to moisten up as light snow develops across
portions of central WI later this afternoon. Light snow is then
expected to spread east into the evening, which will bring
chances for lower ceilings and visibilities. Areas in the
southeast and along the lakefront are expected to be a bit warmer
than inland locations and will likely experience light rain or a
rain/snow mix this evening. The light precip will continue tonight
before gradually tapering off from west to east into Monday
morning. Otherwise, expecting mostly MVFR ceilings with occasional
periods of IFR with light winds overnight before improving and
drying out Monday morning.

Wagner

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 234 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020)

Fairly light northerly winds will continue tonight as light
rain/snow mix spreads into the Lake. Will dry out on Monday and can
expect these quiet marine conditions to continue through Tuesday
as high pressure slowly works its way into the region with
westerly winds developing by Tuesday. Southwesterly winds will
begin to pick up on Wednesday as the pressure gradient tightens
as the surface high exits the region and a surface low skirts east
across Canada.

Wagner

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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