Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 121407 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
907 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

.UPDATE...

Might need to consider somewhat higher cloud coverage this
afternoon for expected diurnal cumulus development. Otherwise, the
forecast looks on track for the remainder of the day.

&&

.MARINE...

Breezy northerly winds are expected today between departing low
pressure to the east and high pressure arriving from the west. A
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect into this evening from Port
Washington southward. The high will move overhead tonight into
Monday, bringing lighter winds to the area. Breezy southerly winds
are then expected to develop Tuesday as the high slides eastward
ahead of approaching low pressure.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 556 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020)

UPDATE...

No changes to the previous discussion.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions will continue through the day today with northeast
winds. Afternoon cumulus clouds will develop in the afternoon with
bases 4000 to 5000 feet. Winds will become light and variable
overnight as high pressure builds overhead.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 402 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020)

SHORT TERM...

Today through Monday...Forecast Confidence is High...

The front is currently moving through southeast Wisconsin with
winds shifting to the northeast. Pleasant conditions are expected
today as upper level ridging builds in resulting in pressure
values increasing. Highs today will be in the 70s to low 80s with
dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s. Some diurnal cumulus is
expected this afternoon, but will clear as we head into the
evening. This will allow for comet viewing after sunset and before
sunrise tomorrow morning.

Expect similar conditions Monday as we`ll be under the high
pressure center. Temperatures will be just a little warmer with
most of the area seeing highs in the low 80s.

Monday night through Thursday night...Forecast confidence medium.

The large n-s sfc ridge and associated upper ridge will shift ewd
across the Great Lakes for Mon nt-Tue in response to a large polar
trough moving ewd across srn Canada. The cold front from the low
moving across Canada is still expected to weaken and slow as it
approaches srn WI on Tue. Sly flow will bring warmer and more
humid conditions, but just small chances for showers and storms on
Tue at this time. There is some uncertainty on how widespread
the showers and storms will be with the weakening cool front for
Tue nt-Wed. Likely PoPs are forecast north and west of the MKE
metro for Tue nt at this time. A shortwave trough will then move
from the central Great Plains to nrn IL on Wed. This will bring a
round of deep convection across nrn IL but could also clip srn WI.
The weak cool front will finally pass Wed nt with high pressure
building into the region for Thu-Fri AM.

LONG TERM...Friday and Saturday...Forecast confidence medium.

Sswly flow and warm advection will ensue for the end of the week.
This may bring hot temps, but also small chances of showers and
storms at this time..

AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...

The frontal boundary is currently moving through southern
Wisconsin with northeast winds behind the front. Winds will
increase as the front passes with gusts up to 20 knots. Scattered
cumulus clouds are then expected this afternoon with bases of 4000
to 5000 feet.

MARINE...

As the front continues south over the lake winds will shift to the
northeast and then north today. Sustained winds of 15-20 knots are
expected with gusts up to 25 knots over the open waters. Waves
will build to 3 to 6 feet from Port Washington to Winthrop Harbor
this morning due to these northeast winds. Therefore a Small Craft
Advisory is in effect this morning into the evening. Lighter winds
move in tonight into Monday as high pressure builds over the area.
Winds will shift to the south Tuesday as the high pressure center
shifts east.

BEACHES...

Steady north to northeast winds are expected today causing waves
to build along the shoreline from Ozaukee County down to the
Illinois border. These high waves with onshore winds will create
life threatening waves and currents today. A Beach Hazards
Statement is in effect. Stay out of the water, and stay away from
dangerous areas like piers and breakwalls.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for WIZ060-066-071-
     072.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LMZ644>646.

&&

$$

Update...DDV
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...RAH
Monday THROUGH Saturday...Gehring



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