Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 031417
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1017 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 840 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022

...Major Flood Impacts Continue Along the Middle Saint Johns River
Basin and its Tributaries as well as Shingle Creek...
...Boating Conditions Will Deteriorate Today...


Mostly quiet on radar and satellite this morning, with just a
stray shower or two along the Atlantic waters. High pressure will
build across the Florida peninsula today behind yesterday`s cool
front, keeping mostly to partly sunny skies for east central
Florida. At the same time, a low pressure system will form off the
Mid Atlantic seaboard, causing the pressure gradient to tighten
slightly over the local area. This will allow for a northward
breeze to form today, around 10 mph inland, and around 14 mph and
a little gusty along the coast. A swath of moisture is expected
to filter over the local area this evening from the low pressure
off the Mid Atlantic seaboard, increasing cloud cover for tonight
and allowing for an isolated light shower or sprinkle this evening
and into tonight, mainly over the Atlantic waters and over the
coast. Temperatures today will feel a little more like fall,
with dew points in the 60s except a few locations along the coast
in the low 70s, with afternoon highs in the low 80s, except for
mid 80s in Martin and southern St. Lucie counties. Overnight lows
will be in the low to mid 60s under partly cloudy skies. Forecast
remains on track with no changes.

&&


.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 840 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022

VFR conditions dominate through the TAF period. Winds have shifted
northerly today, and will increase to around 10 KT across the
inland sites, and around 12 KT and gusty along the coast as the
pressure gradient tightens across the Florida peninsula. Winds
will then decrease overnight, becoming 5 KT or less. Mostly dry
and partly sunny today, with an isolated chance for a light shower
tonight, however have kept VCSH out of TAF since coverage is too
low.

&&

.Previous Discussion...

Issued at 416 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022

Today-Tonight...Day four of the (mostly) dry spell. High pressure
builds into Florida behind yesterday`s cool front, while a low
pressure systems develops off the Mid Atlantic seaboard. This will
increase the pressure gradient at the surface, resulting in a gentle
breeze inland (around 10 mph) and moderately breezy conditions along
the coast (around 14 mph and perhaps a little gusty), from the
north. A band of moisture wrapping into the developing low will get
pulled across Florida and the adjacent Atlantic waters, increasing
cloud cover this evening, and bringing a low chance of sprinkles and
light showers, mainly this evening late this evening and tonight.
With the passage of the cool front, afternoon highs finally get a
real knock in the fall direction and below normal, topping out
around 80 north of I-4 and the lower 80s to the south. Lake O and
Stuart have to wait one more day for below normal highs, only making
it to the mid 80s today. Overnight lows in the low 60s north of I-4,
mid 60s to the south through the inland areas, and mid to upper 60s
along the coast.

Beach conditions begin to deteriorate this afternoon as northerly
wind increases, producing a strong longshore current along the
Volusia and northern Brevard coasts today, extending southward along
all central Florida Atlantic beaches tomorrow. This will result in
an increased risk of dangerous rip currents near piers and jetties,
and could knock swimmers off their feet. Remember, always swim near
a lifeguard and never swim alone.

Tue-Sun... Cut-off upper low near coastal VA/NC Tue morning will
lift NE only to be replaced by a broader longwave trough over the
eastern CONUS through the period. This will maintain zonal
(westerly) flow aloft over central FL. At the surface, low
pressure spinning just off the mid Atlc coast will produce a
breezy north wind along the coast with isolated to scattered
showers pushing southward. As the sfc low pulls away Wed-Thu, weak
high pressure will settle over the area and winds and shower
chances will decrease. Conditions look mostly dry through Sat
then some moisture should get pulled northward from south Florida
as a weak frontal boundary settles across central FL Sun. Have
drawn a small 15-20 PoP for north/central sections and a 30 PoP
for the Treasure coast Sun. Max temps in the low to mid 80s. Mins
in the upper 50s across the north interior Wed and Thu mornings
then rising to the mid 60s late week and this weekend. Milder min
temps along the coast due to the onshore wind component, holding
in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 416 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022

Today-Tonight...Deteriorating boating conditions. Northerly winds
freshen behind a weak cool front, and a pressure gradient tightening
between high pressure building over Florida and a low pressure
system developing off the Mid Atlantic seaboard. Small craft should
exercise caution in the northern (Volusia) waters and Brevard
offshore waters for winds increasing to 15-20 kts. Small craft
should also exercise caution in the Volusia and Brevard offshore
waters for seas 4-6 ft. In the Brevard nearshore and Treasure
Coast waters, winds 10-15 kts increasing to around 15 kts tonight,
and seas 3-5 ft. Isolated to scattered showers possible, mainly
in the late evening and tonight.

Tue-Fri...Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected over most
of the Atlc waters Tue as north winds 17-20 knots builds seas 6-8
FT in the Gulf Stream with 4-6 FT close to the coast. Pressure
gradient begins to ease Wed and N to NE winds decrease 10 knots
or less Thu as weak high pressure settles over the area. Seas
will be slower to subside esp in the Gulf Steam but are forecast
to fall below 6 FT Thu and be 3-4 FT Fri.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 416 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022

Previous Discussion

Flooding concerns continue along all St Johns River forecast
points. The St. Johns River at Astor has started a slow decline
but this should plateau and even increase slightly again due to
the developing north wind flow today.

Upstream forecast points at Deland, Sanford, and Lake Harney at
Geneva are still on a slow rise, with all points forecast to
crest in Major Flood Stage this week. The St. Johns near Cocoa
appears to have created overnight in Minor Flood Stage and is
forecast to drop below flood Stage Tuesday.

The Little Wekiva River is forecast to remain nearly steady on the
cusp of major flood today. Shingle Creek near Campbell has begun
to slowly decline, but is forecast to remain above Record Flood
Stage through at least tomorrow. Discharges from upstream may slow
the decline of river levels over the coming days, and could even
cause some brief increases in river levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  65  78  61 /  10  20  20   0
MCO  83  64  82  61 /  10  10  20   0
MLB  82  67  81  65 /  10  20  30  10
VRB  83  67  82  65 /  10  10  40  20
LEE  80  61  80  59 /  10  10   0   0
SFB  81  64  80  60 /  10  10  20   0
ORL  83  64  81  63 /  10  10  20   0
FPR  82  67  82  65 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 4 AM EDT Wednesday for
     AMZ550-570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 4 AM EDT Wednesday for
     AMZ552-555-575.

&&

$$

Watson/Fehling


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