Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 040809
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
309 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 125 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022

Dry conditions continue across the area; however some increased
clouds will be possible today. We remain on the western periphery
of an upper low centered over the Mid-Atlantic. This upper low is
expected to slowly drift eastward into the western Atlantic leading
to more zonal flow a loft heading into tonight and Wednesday. A weak
shortwave will progress across the area leading to an increase in
high clouds especially near the coast. Other than that a whole lot
of nothing going on with surface high pressure in control and
relatively low moisture. Even with the development of an afternoon
seabreeze, moisture and overall synoptic scale lift is so poor that
it`ll be tough to get mid level clouds let alone any form of
precipitation. Temperatures will remain around normal with highs
in the mid 80s and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. Rip current
risk remains low given modest offshore winds through the period.
BB/03



&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 125 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022

A nice pattern with dry weather expected through the period. Aloft,
our region remains in a generally west-northwesterly flow with a
shortwave trough moving east across the Great Lakes region through
Wednesday night. Through Thursday night, the pattern over our
region remains relatively unchanged. However, off to our north,
the shortwave over the Great Lakes region becomes absorbed into a
more broad strengthening longwave trough that encompasses the
eastern CONUS by the end of the period. At the surface, ridging
continues to dominate over the region, through Thursday. Going
into Thursday night, the surface ridging will gradually begin to
break down as a dry cold front associated with the aforementioned
trough begins to move into the region from the north-northwest.
PWATs will remain below an inch through the period, thus, keeping
any rain chances out of the forecast through the short term.
However, there could be a slight increase in mid and upper level
clouds.

For temps, overnight lows will be on the cool side ranging from
the low to mid 50s inland, to the low to mid 60s closer to the
coast (maybe a few upper 60s to near 70 on immediate Gulf beach
front). Highs on Thursday, will be mainly in the mid 80s (possibly
a few isolated upper 80s). JEH/88



&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 125 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022

The extended term is also expected to remain dry through the period.
Aloft, we continue to remain in a generally west-northwesterly flow
over our region through Friday, with shortwave energy continuing
to move through the longwave trough helping to maintain the trough
over the eastern CONUS. This allows the dry cold front mentioned
in the short term to move south across the region through the day
on Friday and into Friday evening. PWATs will attempt to increase
along and ahead of the front, but will struggle to increase to
above 1.0 inches. However, given a stout dry layer present in the
mid- levels, rain chances will remain out of the forecast with the
frontal passage.

Through the rest of the period, the pattern aloft looks to remain
relatively unchanged again. At the surface, after the frontal passage,
high pressure builds into our area from the north, bringing some
reinforcing dry and cool air into our area. As for temps, highs on
Friday are expected to generally range in the mid to upper 80s just
in advance of the front. Following the frontal passage going into
the weekend and early part of next week, highs are expected to will
range from the mid to upper 70s over interior locations to low to
mid 80s down toward the coast. Overnight lows on Friday are expected
to range from the mid 50s inland to low to mid 60s at the coast.
Going into the weekend, overnight lows are expected to drop, ranging
from the upper 40s inland to the mid 50s down toward the coast (maybe
a few upper 50s to low 60s along immediate coast and barrier islands).
JEH/88



&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 125 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022

No significant impacts expected through late week as light
to moderate winds continue over the marine area. By the weekend,
winds will increase in the wake of a cold front potentially leading
to small craft needing to exercise caution offshore. For now winds
appear to remain below advisory criteria, but will need to monitor
the trends as we get closer to the weekend. BB/03



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      84  60  85  59  87  59  88  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   82  64  85  63  86  62  88  64 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      83  67  84  66  86  67  87  67 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   83  54  84  53  86  53  87  55 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  80  56  81  54  85  54  85  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Camden      80  54  81  52  84  53  84  55 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Crestview   82  57  84  53  87  54  89  60 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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