Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 252250
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
550 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

.UPDATE...For 00Z Aviation discussion below

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

The key messages of the forecast are snow ending this evening,
followed by cold temperatures for the next couple of days. Looking
ahead, no precipitation is expected the rest of the week and
temperatures will warm toward the weekend with highs near 50
possible.

Early afternoon radar and surface obs showed widespread snow across
the region with visibility generally in the 1 to 3 mile range.
Forecast soundings showed a deep dendritic growth layer with only
modest omega, so continued with the trend of the previous forecast
in higher pops but light amounts. One change was to push flurries
through this evening based on the obs and forecast soundings.

Despite the light amounts, surface temperatures were below freezing
cross the region, and this caused black ice to form on area bridges
and overpasses. Given the early season snowfall, slick roads, and
accidents of the MNDOT page, decided to continue the special weather
statement through this evening.

Overnight temperatures will be cold, but to what extent depends upon
how much we clear out overnight. There is quite a bit up cloud cover
upstream, and for that reason did raise overnight low temperatures
closer to the 50th percentile of model guidance from the 10th
percentile. Once the snow ends tonight, the rest of the forecast is
dry.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

No significant changes to the previous forecast. Confidence
continues to increase in a significant warm up later this weekend
and through the weekend which will bring above normal temperatures
for the first time since the 14th of October.

Highs on Saturday will reach 50 for several locations, and the
current forecast could trend higher based on the model spread. The
10th percentile, or lower end of the forecast, shows highs in the
upper 40s. Meanwhile the 90th percentile, or higher end of the
forecast shows highs in the mid to upper 50s. In other words, it
looks like the snow this past week will be an afterthought by the
time November rolls around.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 550 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

Lingering light snow and attendant MVFR conditions will affect
central/southern/eastern TAF sites through early evening.
Measurable snow should end by 03Z at sites, with the exception of
KEAU where it looks to linger until closer to 06Z. After that,
low-end VFR ceilings linger into Monday with scattered flurries.
Northwest winds under 10 knots prevails through Monday morning,
with backing to the west/southwest on Monday afternoon.

KMSP...Ceilings will gradually improve this evening as the snow
tapers off, but a low-end VFR ceiling is expected into Monday
morning with scattered flurries possible.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind SW 10-15G20 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind WSW 10 kts.
THU...VFR with MVFR ceilings possible. Wind N at 10-15 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for Martin.

WI...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...LS



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