Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 031720
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1220 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

.UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

KEY MESSAGES:

- Above normal temperatures through Wednesday, below normal Thursday
 into the weekend with a widespread freeze likely.

- Chances for light rain increase again Tuesday night into Wednesday.

In 24 hours, we`ve seen the h5 low off to our west move from the
Continental Divide of Montana out on to the eastern Plains of
Montana. This slow progression will continue today before it finally
starts picking up some steam on Tuesday. The moisture plume to the
east of this upper low will remain off to our west through Tuesday
morning, but by Tuesday morning, it will start nudging into western
MN. As we saw over the weekend, forecast soundings ahead of this
trough remain dry below 10k feet. So this will again result in a
prolonged period where we see occasional sprinkles/light rain slowly
work across the area Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. Given the
lack of low level moisture, amounts continue to look to come in
under a tenth of an inch.

Still on tap for Wednesday night is a strong cold front with a
1040mb high dropping down out of Canada. However, before that front
gets here, we`ll squeeze out one more nice day on Wednesday, with
highs again into the low 70s before the bottom falls out Wednesday
night. We`ll be in CAA mode through Thursday night, with the coldest
day still looking to be Friday, where 50 will be a difficult number
to achieve. For lows, we never look to have a night where we
decouple, with weak cold advection continuing through Thursday
night, while Friday night, we`ll get on the north side of the high,
with a westerly return flow beginning. Still, with dewpoints
crashing into the 20s, we`ll get plenty cold enough both Friday and
Saturday mornings, with widespread freezes expected both mornings.
The lack of a night of decoupling and calm winds will just make it
so that we won`t be talking about record lows either morning.

As mentioned earlier, we`re already getting into return flow Friday
night, so we`ll quickly see highs rebound a good 10 degrees on
Saturday, with highs expected to be back around normal by Sunday.
This milder trend will continue into the beginning of next week.
Looking a little ahead, the EPS is trending toward a stronger trough
moving through the area the middle of next week that may offer us a
chance at seeing more than a few hundredths of an inch of precip, but
until then, we look to remain stuck in our dry rut.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

Few to broken high clouds today with mainly virga being reported.
There are some chances for sprinkles and showers, best chances in
western Minnesota.

KMSP... No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...VFR. Slight chc AM -SHRA. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Thu...VFR. Wind N 10-15G25 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...NDC


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