Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 031124

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
724 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
Issued at 313 AM EDT MON OCT 3 2022

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a mid-level low over MT
with ridging from the Southern Plains to northern Ontario. This mid-
level ridge is supporting a sfc high pres ridge extending from
southern WI to southern Quebec. With resulting calm/near calm
conditions and mostly clear skies, patchy radiation fog has
developed over portions of the fcst area. The patchy fog is mostly
near rivers/streams/swampy areas and inland lakes. To the w, sct/bkn
mid cloudiness is moving over far western Upper MI, and farther w,
some -shra/sprinkles are noted on radar imagery in ne MN into w
central WI. This pcpn is occurring in a zone of weak isentropic
ascent. Current temps across the fcst area range from the lwr 30s F
across portions of the eastern fcst area (but as low as 29 at the
Spincich Lake RAWS) to locally the low/mid 50s far w into the

Thru sunrise, don`t expect temps to change much from current
readings. The patchy fog will also persist until a couple of hrs
after sunrise. A pleasant early Oct day will follow. There will be
some mid/high clouds around, especially w, but temps will still rise
into the low/mid 60s F e and generally upper 60/lwr 70s F w. The
zone of weak isentropic ascent to the w does shift e, so not totally
out of the question that a -shra or a few sprinkles will reach
western Upper MI this morning. Fcst will reflect dry conditions, but
will monitor trends over the next several hrs to determine if some
mention of pcpn needs to be added.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 439 AM EDT MON OCT 3 2022

The synoptic pattern early in the forecast period across the
CONUS will consist of lingering high pressure over the Great Lakes
Region and northeast U.S., areas of low pressure over the
Carolinas and Dakotas, and strong ridge amplification over the
West Coast. So, for Upper Michigan this means a continued dry
trend through at least Tuesday with the exception of some low
chance Pops across the far western portions of Lake Superior as
early as Tuesday morning. And, those rain showers will be
associated with a low-level jet ahead of that Dakotas cutoff low,
which is progged to track southeastward through MN/WI on
Wednesday. Expect an increase in Pops on Wednesday afternoon, but
the highest chances for more widespread rain will come on
Wednesday night/Thursday morning with fropa. This is also when an
abrupt shift in temperatures can be expected as medium range
deterministic models continue to trend toward a drop from around
13C to -9C at 850mb. This will be quite a change after the above
normal temperatures in the southwest flow ahead of the system on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Daytime highs those days are projected to
top off in the upper 60s/low 70s before the drastic drop into the
40s and 50s from Thursday through the end of the extended period.
Meanwhile, overnight lows will plummet to some of the coldest so
far this season with widespread mid to upper 20s and low 30s
across the interior west and remaining inland areas. Areas closest
to the lakeshore will bottom out in the mid 30s also with a weak
warming trend through the weekend.

So, with talk of all this cold air, it also leads to mention of snow
for the first time this season.  Temperatures will be cold enough to
support a rain/snow mix by Thursday night, but the lack of moisture
at that point will prevent any type of measurable snow accumulation.
 Nonetheless, it will be the first chance at that snow forecast and
a hint of winter.

Further out, ensembles trend toward a dry forecast for the weekend
as high pressure becomes re-established across the region.  And,
more widespread frost will be blanket the southern portions of the
forecast area on Friday and Saturday nights.

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 724 AM EDT MON OCT 3 2022

With drier air holding on at the lower levels, VFR will prevail at
IWD/CMX/SAW thru this fcst period with nothing more than sct-bkn mid-
level clouds at around 10kft. A band of -shra/sprinkles is advancing
toward western Upper MI, and this pcpn will hold together and pass
across IWD during the next couple of hrs, but no restriction blo VFR
will occur.

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 451 AM EDT MON OCT 3 2022

Winds will generally be below 20 kts through Wednesday, but they
will drastically increase from Wednesday night through early Friday
as a cold front moves through the Upper Great Lakes region.  Gales
of 35 to 40 knots out of the north are expected from Wednesday night
into Thursday night.  After that, they will weaken a bit, but will
remain strong out of the west through the weekend with widespread
gusts up to 30 kts on Satruday.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


SHORT TERM...Rolfson
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