Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 012024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
224 PM MDT Sat Oct 1 2022

.DISCUSSION...A low pressure system currently over southeast Idaho
will be slowly moving to the north and east over the next 24 to 36
hours. The band of wrap around precipitation has been affecting
portions of southwest Montana and Lemhi county today. This band is
anticipated to weaken and lift into west central Montana and areas
along the Continental Divide during the remainder of this
afternoon and into the evening.

The low pressure system should be over central Montana by Sunday
afternoon. The lingering instability and residue moisture should
allow for the development of a few showers and maybe even an
isolated thunderstorm for western Montana during the afternoon

A ridge of high pressure will build over the western United States
during the first part of the work week, keeping the Northern
Rockies in weak northwesterly flow aloft. This flow pattern will
allow temperatures to slowly warm to above normal readings, but
also allow for a low probability of afternoon convection. The
ridge axis is anticipated to move over the Northern Rockies by the
end of the week causing warm and dry conditions.


.AVIATION...The low pressure system over southeast Idaho will
continue to cause wrap around precipitation that is mainly
affecting KBTM and to a lesser extent KSMN this afternoon. The low
is anticipated to slowly move to the north and east tonight into
Sunday. This will cause the band of precipitation to move into
west central Montana this evening causing the potential of shower
activity around KMSO by 01/23z. The precipitation is anticipated
to decrease in coverage and intensity until only of few light
showers will remain along the Continental Divide. The areas that
received some precipitation and have partial clearing tonight
should expected fog development by Sunday morning.



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