Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 031710
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1210 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

Fire danger concerns today then precipitation chances from tonight
through Tuesday night are the main forecast concerns in the short
term. Looking ahead, we could see frost or freezing temperatures
in at least parts of our forecast area Friday morning and Saturday
morning.

Large scale pattern at 500 mb features a closed low over MT with
shortwave energy zipping eastward across northern Canada. Models
continue to show this low opening up today and moving to the
western Dakotas tonight. This should then move east or southeast
while amplifying slightly Tuesday into Tuesday night.

High temperatures Sunday were in the upper 70s across western IA
and mostly in the upper 70s or lower 80s for much of eastern NE
(but KLNK did hit 84). The airmass will not change much for today,
so we should see temperatures fairly close to what we saw
yesterday. Dewpoints will be dropping in the afternoon with winds
becoming a bit gusty. This should push the fire danger into the
very high category for much of the area.

Precipitation chances will be increasing from west to east across
northeast NE this afternoon and tonight, but any amounts look to
be pretty light (a tenth of an inch or less). Instability is
pretty limited so expect mostly showers with isolated thunder
possible. Forcing for ascent (lift) increases over the area for
Tuesday afternoon and evening. Right now it looks like any
precipitation would stay west of Lincoln and Omaha/Council Bluffs
before 6 pm Tuesday. Spotty precipitation is possible over all of
the area Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning until the lift
associated with mid level system moves away from our area. Again
some thunder is possible Tuesday/Tuesday night - but no severe
weather is expected.

The overall large scale pattern across North America should start
to amplify Wednesday as a mid level ridge strengthens over western
Canada and a shortwave trough pushes southeast across Manitoba and
western Ontario. The bulk of energy from that trough will push
toward the Great Lakes region, but it will help drive a cold front
into our area from the north or northeast late Wednesday night
into Thursday. Expect quite a range of high temperatures over the
area for Thursday. We currently are forecasting mid or upper 50s
near the SD border but as high as lower 70s near the KS border.
Highs are only expected to be in the 50s for Friday.

As for frost or freezing conditions, look for lows Friday morning
from 30 to 35 in our northern areas and mid or upper 30s in our
southern counties. Saturday morning looks even a bit cooler for
at least some spots, with lows mostly in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
The highest chance of seeing upper 20s is from Pender, West Point
and Tekamah toward Onawa, Logan and Harlan.

The coldest air should start to move away from the area during the
day Saturday, with afternoon highs warming to around 60 or the
lower 60s. Highs should reach the mid 60s to lower 70s Sunday and
then upper 60s to mid 70s Monday.

Overall rain chances look pretty low from Thursday into Monday,
but a few showers could occur from about Albion down toward
Seward, Fairbury and Beatrice on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

VFR conditions through the period. South southeasterly winds at
15 to 23 knots, but diminishing to 8 knots or less by 23-01z.
Showers become increasingly likely at KOFK after 04/03z, becoming
prevailing by 07z. Still not confident enough to mention thunder
at KOFK with this issuance, but will let later shifts evaluate
whether we would need to add. Precip chances remains out of the
KLNK/KOMA TAFs until after the end of the TAF period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Miller
AVIATION...DeWald


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