Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 031721
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1221 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 954 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

Visible satellite imagery shows an area of thick low clouds
continues to shift southwestward across our eastern half this
morning, which has kept temperatures down in the 50s so far.
However, cloud deck is already eroding from the north and
northeast, and models insist that the clouds will erode
completely this afternoon. Therefore have adjusted cloud cover
for our east upward for the morning hours but downward through
the afternoon, with highs still expected to reach the 60s/70s
east of I-65. Western half of the midstate will see mostly sunny
skies today with another beautiful day in the 70s to around 80
expected. Although low level moisture has increased a bit more
from yesterday with dewpoints now in the 50s, gusty northeast
winds and continued dry conditions will result in some fire
danger this afternoon - mainly our western half. Higher fire
danger is expected next few days as dewpoints and min RH values
will be much lower.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 218 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

Pretty hefty cloud cover is plaguing areas east of I-65 this
morning. This will probably leave these areas a little warmer than
they otherwise would have seen, but everybody should drop back
into the low to mid 50s by daybreak. Clouds will erode through the
morning hours, leaving everyone with plenty of sun today. Even
with the continued northerly flow, afternoon highs should creep
towards 80 for just about everyone, with the exception for a few
upper 60s on the Plateau. We should see a skosh more low level
moisture today, which means RHs should be slightly higher today
than the last few days, but by Tuesday, an influx of dry air and
upper ridging could create another day of Marginal Fire Danger.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 218 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

Our run of zero PoPs continues with this forecast package. High
pressure on Wednesday and Thursday may balloon afternoon highs
into the mid-80s both day, but we`re still looking at a dry
frontal passage on Thursday evening, which will bring very fall-
like temperatures to the mid-state for the weekend. Probably
should have seen this coming, but latest guidance would suggest an
outside shot a patchy frost on the Plateau Sunday morning as
temperatures dip in the mid-30s. Most likely scenario is sheltered
and low-lying areas where cold air can pool could succumb to
frost. Don`t forget, the average first FREEZE for Crossville is
October 20th (we don`t keep "first frost" stats due its patchy
nature), so this potential frost might be right on schedule. All
of this is still several days away, but keep this in mind as the
weekend approaches if you have sensitive vegetation.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

CSV...Low clouds are hanging tough over the Plateau...however VIS
satellite continue to show the clouds eroding. 18Z TAFs may start
out MVFR however they will transition to VFR. Northerly winds
gusting to less than 20KTs through the afternoon hours and
decoupling after sunset. Models are show low level moisture once
again so MVFR and maybe even IFR conditions expected overnight
after 09Z. Winds tomorrow will be easterly and not as gusty.

BNA/MQY/CKV...VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.
Gusty northerly winds less than 20KTs this afternoon decoupling
after sunset. There could be some lower clouds around middle TN
overnight...but not expecting any reductions at BNA/MQY/CKV. Winds
turn more easterly tomorrow and not as gusty.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      47  79  45  81 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    44  78  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     41  69  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       45  79  42  81 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     43  72  42  75 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      41  69  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   44  77  42  79 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   43  78  41  80 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        45  79  43  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Shamburger
SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....12


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