Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 020247

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1047 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022

Low pressure and an associated warm front south of the waters will
move gradually and slowly farther offshore tonight through Sunday.
Strong high pressure in Southeast Canada will also be moving
southeast and will begin to build in Sunday night. High pressure
centered to our north and west will weaken as it slides south
Monday through Wednesday. At the same time, low pressure off the
Mid-Atlantic coast redevelops and deepens in place before exiting
to our south and east on Wednesday. Brief, weak high pressure
builds over the area on Thursday before a cold frontal
passage on Friday. High pressure builds in for next weekend.


Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to
temperatures and dew points to reflect observations.

Otherwise, a cutoff mid level low approaches from the south and
west tonight. At the surface, low pressure moves south of the
region with a strong high centered in Southeast Canada. The
front attached to the low will move south as well. A steep
pressure gradient will set up between the high to the northwest
and low to the south. NE winds will increase to eventually
around 15 to 20 mph with gusts around 20 to 30 mph, highest near
the coast.

Model bufkit soundings convey still a lot of dry air in the mid to
upper levels of the atmosphere.

With the approach of the trough will have some increased positive
vorticity advection, allowing for some extra vertical lift.
However, the lack of moisture will keep rain mainly light without
much organized structures of rainfall expected.

Forecast lows range mainly from the low to mid 50s.


For Sunday, the mid level trough will continue moving eastward with
the area in area of increased positive vorticity advection. Dry air
aloft however as indicated by forecast BUFKIT soundings, will limit
the intensity of the rainfall. At the surface, the low and front
will slowly and gradually move farther south of Long Island.
Therefore, would expect most rain to be light. For Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night, the NE flow is advecting in some level
drier air, which will allow for the rainfall to lessen. Forecast
dewpoints will be lowering. At the surface, high pressure centered
in Southeast Canada will make its movement to the southeast and get
closer to the region. The high will start to build in from northwest
to southeast Sunday night. Chances for rain decrease substantially
Sunday night.

Forecast winds will be NE and will remain gusty for Sunday before
starting to lower Sunday night. Wind speeds will be around 15
to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 to 40 mph. The higher end of these
ranges will be near the coast.

Forecast highs Sunday range mainly from the upper 50s to lower 60s
and forecast lows Sunday night range mainly from the low to upper


High pressure centered to our north and west will weaken as it
slides south Monday through Wednesday. At the same time,
disorganized low pressure merges with incoming mid-level energy from
the northwest and results in the redevelopment of a low pressure
system off the Mid-Atlantic coast. This will keep a tight pressure
gradient across the area and lock us into a NE-N flow through
Wednesday. Gusts will be strongest across the CT coast, Long Island
and NYC on monday, with gusts up to 30 mph. Gusts decrease a bit on
Tuesday and then further decrease on Wednesday. Global models keep
most of the precipitation from this low offshore on Monday with
strong high pressure likely winning out, but have maintained slight
chance to chance PoPs. As high pressure weakens on Tuesday and
Wednesday the precip shield should be able to advance farther north
and again slight chance to chance PoPs remains over the area.

We don`t completely dry out until the low exits to the east and brief
ridging builds in aloft and at the surface on Thursday. There is
overall good agreement later in the week. An upper level trough will
dig southeast from central Canada into the Great Lakes region as it
phases with a previous upper level low over the northwestern US.
Surface low pressure will form well to our north, but drag a cold
front through our area sometime Friday. High pressure then builds in
for next weekend.

NBM was used for temperatures, with NBM 10th percentile blended in
for Wednesday night. Highs will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s on
Monday and Tuesday. Slow warm up on Wednesday into Thursday, with
highs in the mid 70s on Thursday.


A stationary front will remain south of Long Island through
Sunday, as strong Canadian high pressure builds into upstate
New York and New England late tonight into Sunday.

Drizzle and light rain showers will gradually develop
overnight. Conditions are expected to oscillate between MVFR
and IFR conditions which may be dependent on the occurrence of

Conditions expected to remain MVFR on Sunday with scattered
showers much of the day. IFR conditions are possible much of the
day as well, especially in any showers or light rain. KSWF,
KHPN, KBDR have a better chance at staying dry Sunday, but MVFR
conditions expected regardless. These terminals may go VFR late
in the TAF period but too uncertain to include at this time.

NE winds will pick up tonight 10-15kt G20-25kt. By 12Z Sunday,
gusts along the coast and for eastern terminals approach 25-30
kt with some gusts upwards of 35-40kt possible through the day
Sunday. Highest gusts more likely for KISP, KJFK, KGON, KBDR
and maybe KLGA.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

AMD likely for changes in flight category deviating from
forecast through Sunday morning. Uncertainty in the improvement
of ceilings after 18Z Sunday.

.Sunday night...Chance of rain with MVFR cond possible early.
NE winds 25-35kt coastal terminals and G20-25kt inland. Possibly
improving to VFR late.
.Monday and Tuesday...Chance of rain mainly along the coast,
with MVFR cond possible. NE winds G20-25kt coastal terminals
and G15-20kt inland.
.Wednesday....VFR. N winds G20kt in the morning at KISP/KGON.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/


With the expected increase in winds going into tonight, moved the
gale warning to start already on the ocean. The other forecast
waters remain with a small craft advisory. Then, on Sunday, all
waters have a gale warning. For Sunday night, Western Long Island
Sound and NY Harbor will likely drop to SCA levels for winds, with
the rest of the forecast waters retaining gales for much of the

Ocean seas build to 10 to 12 ft with the main swell coming out of
the ENE. Eastern Long Island Sound seas build to near 5 to 6 ft
Sunday into Sunday night.

With high pressure centered to our northwest and low pressure
deepening offshore to our south, a tight pressure gradient will
remain across the area. Gale conditions could linger into Monday
afternoon, especially on the ocean waters. By the evening hours
gusts should diminish to SCA criteria, and then they remain there
through Wednesday morning on the ocean waters. Wave heights across
the ocean Monday morning will be 9-12 feet, but slowly decreasing
to 5-8 feet by Wednesday and below 5 feet by Friday afternoon. At
the same time, wind gusts could pick back up above 25 kt behind a
cold frontal passage late Friday.


No freshwater flooding is expected through Sunday night. Rain
amounts will be around a quarter to half inch for most

No additional hydrologic impacts are expected through next


Some sites along the south shore of Long Island hit minor flood
thresholds with the last high tide, a little higher than
forecast. With that in mind have bumped up water levels a
little for successive high tides into Sunday, and will be
issuing an advisory for all but the SE CT coast for the Sunday
afternoon high tide cycle, for widespread minor and localized
moderate flooding (Freeport and Kings Point gauges). Localized
minor flooding is also possible with the late Sunday night high
tide on the Long Island south shore bays.

Water levels may increase further on Monday on the Long Island
south shore back bays as tidal piling continues, despite
diminishing winds in the afternoon. This could result in
moderate flooding along the S Nassau and SW Suffolk back bays
(Freeport and Lindenhurst gauges), with widespread minor
flooding farther east on the south shore bays, Jamaica Bay, and
NY Harbor. There is a little uncertainty here as models have
shown a slight SE trend with the sfc low taking shape off the
Mid Atlantic coast, which could result in lower water levels
than currently anticipated.

The minor flood threat could continue for the south shore of
Nassau and adjacent areas of Suffolk into Tuesday.

Localized high surf and minor beach erosion is also possible for
the eastern Suffolk beaches from Sunday through Tuesday. This
threat looks lower than it did in previous forecast cycles. The
limiting factor for surf height is the orientation of the main
swell, which will be more parallel to the coastline of the ocean
beaches as opposed to onshore.


CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ071-
     Coastal Flood Advisory from noon to 4 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ072-
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 PM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from noon to 4 PM EDT Sunday for NJZ006-
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-
     Gale Warning from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ331-
     Gale Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ335-338.
     Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.


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