Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 020335
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1035 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022

The forecast continues to be repetitive, with an established upper
level ridge resulting in clear skies, warm temperatures, and dry
conditions. The main concern continues to be the borderline elevated
fire weather conditions, which continues to be limited to borderline
due to either surface winds or relative humidities. Available fuels
continue to be sufficient across the region (ERCs widespread > 90th
percentile). For Saturday night into Sunday, relative humidities
across the region will be in the 10s, with the main limiting factor
being surface winds. Winds will generally be out of the
east/southeast, with the strongest winds (and greatest fire weather
potential) in northwestern Oklahoma.

Temperatures will continue to be rather steady, with the highs
expected to be in the mid 80s and lows in the upper 40s/low 50s.

Zwink

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022

The upper level low that is currently located over the northwest
CONUS is expected to gradually start shifting to the east on Sunday,
reorienting the upper level ridge into a northeast/southwest
orientation by early Tuesday morning, before the ridge shifts
towards the east. With the upper level trough moving through the
region starting Tuesday, models/ensembles are currently indicating a
slight chance of some precipitation in far northwestern Oklahoma,
with the rest of the region remaining dry due to a lack of moisture.
A strong cold front is anticipated to move through the region later
in the week, bringing cooler temperatures through Oklahoma and
western north Texas by Friday. However with these cooler
temperatures, there will also be stronger winds throughout the
region, which may exacerbate current fire weather concerns with,
with the dry conditions and now possible gusty winds behind the
front.

Zwink

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022

VFR conditions expected this TAF period with E to SE winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  52  83  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         52  85  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  51  85  51  86 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           51  84  50  83 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     50  84  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         51  85  52  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...25


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