Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 012303

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
603 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022

The Quad State will remain under northerly flow aloft with surface
high pressure continuing to dominate. As a result, dry and mild
conditions will continue.

The NBM guidance has been on the high side of the range of
guidance for high temperatures lately and was generally accepted
for Sunday and Monday. Highs Sunday should be at least as warm as
today and likely a degree or two warmer. The NBM guidance has not
handled the decoupling across the region well the last several
nights and we have once again undercut it for tonight by going
with the 25th percentile of the NBM, and even lower in a few
locations, e.g. KMDH. The 25th percentile of all guidance was used
for Sunday night`s low temperatures.

Dewpoints have mixed well into the 30s over most of the region
today, which is lower than expected. This has resulted in RH`s
dropping below 25% here at KPAH and a few other locations. Winds
are remaining below 15 mph, but not by much. We ran with the
ConsShort dewpoints through Sunday, and that reflects the lower
end of guidance. The resulting humidity is not quite as low as
today`s levels, but still has 25 or less over the worst drought-
stricken areas of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and west
Kentucky. Winds should be very similar to today`s levels, so we
will continue to message elevated fire danger areawide Sunday.
Winds should calm down some Monday, but the dryness will continue.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022

On the synoptic scale, the long term forecast period begins with a
lingering upper trough over the Mid-Atlantic that will finally begin
to progress offshore. A shortwave ridge will be positioned over the
Mississippi River Valley while a shortwave trough is located over
the Dakotas. Surface high pressure in the Midwest keeps conditions
dry Tuesday and Wednesday with easterly flow shifting towards
southerly Wednesday as the high progresses eastward. There will be
plenty of dry air aloft which is likely to drop RH values to the 20-
30% range Wednesday afternoon. However, winds are looking to be
relatively light.

The only possible opportunity for precipitation in the forecast is
Thursday afternoon as a cold front in the shortwave trough
approaches. Some models bring showers to the area, but with dry air
hindering potential, NBM PoPs only reach as far south as areas
outside the CWA north of the I-64 corridor. Following the cold
front, winds will increase out of the north as high pressure moves
in, though RH values will not drop quite as much during the
afternoon hours as they will midweek.

High temperatures trend warmer midweek as southerly flow returns,
reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s on Wednesday and Thursday.
Following the cold front, highs drop to the 60s for the end of the
week. Lows trend similarly, increasing from the mid 40s to the lower
50s Wednesday night, then drop to the 30s for the end of the week.


Issued at 601 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022

TAFs continue to be VFR through this TAF issuance. Gusty winds
will linger into early this evening before quickly diminishing by
sunset. Gusty winds to 15-20kts will increase by late Sunday
morning into Sunday afternoon.




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