Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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FXZS60 NSTU 040015

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
115 PM SST Mon Oct 3 2022

.Short term...

The latest satellite imagery shows that the trough, which dropped
over a half inch of rain overnight at the airport, has moved to
the west of American Samoa. A ridge of high pressure is now moving
into the region. Even though heavy rainfall is not expected
through the middle of the week, there will be enough moisture to
create a possible passing shower throughout this time. The
east/northeasterly winds from this afternoon will become more
easterly by the overnight hours/Tuesday morning. The easterly
trades will continue with wind speeds up to 15 mph as the ridge
will slowly move away from the territory. Overall, severe weather
is not expected through Thursday night.

.Long term...

Models are starting to become more persistent on developing a low
pressure system between the aforementioned high that is moving
eastward and another strong high pressure system to the west. The
center of the low, along with persistent heavy rainfall, is
projected to be more to the south of the territory than the model
output from yesterday. However, there is still plenty of moisture
coming in from the east at all levels of the atmosphere for Friday
night and going into the weekend. Therefore, numerous showers are
forecast during that time. The exact wind direction (within the
north and easterly direction) will be pending on the expect
development of the low. However, we expect wind speeds to be at
least 15 mph throughout that time. We will continue to monitor the
positioning of the pending low throughout the week.



The latest information from the PacIOOS buoy to the east of Aunu`u
shows waves around 7 feet. Since there is no significant swell
coming from the south and waves mainly wind driven, surf has
decreased to below High Surf Advisory levels. The
east/northeasterly breeze will become more easterly overnight. We
expect the strength of the winds to be fresh for the majority of
the week. This will create mainly wind driven/choppy seas through
Thursday, which may reach 8 feet at times. Therefore, the Small
Craft Advisory will likely remain during this time.



A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect.



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