Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 031736

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1136 AM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 425 AM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022

Key Messages:

1) Above normal precipitation and below normal temperatures persist
for today and tonight.


Water vapor imagery shows a deep low pressure system currently
situated over the Montana/Wyoming border. Deterministic models are
in agreement that this low should continue to slowly track eastward
through today. This pattern will keep us in moist southwesterly
flow. For the high country, this will mean another day of good
synoptic and orographic lift and scattered to numerous showers.
Peaks above about 11,000ft will see some slush and snow while the
rest of mountains will see rain and possible embedded thunder.
Models are also in good agreement with bringing in a backdoor cold
frontal boundary through the forecast area early this afternoon.
Both the HRRR and the NAM 4k show the frontal boundary pushing into
northern portions of the I-25 corridor around noon to 2pm this
afternoon. Around this time, we will see an increase in
precipitation along the surface trough axis across our plains,
particularly south of highway 50 in portions of Huerfano, Las
Animas, and into Otero county, where forcing will be best in the lee
of the Sangres and the Raton Mesa. We could see weak isolated
thunderstorm activity across this area as well, but with an overall
lack of instability, not expecting any severe development. Some
areas will also see a secondary surge after 6pm, with scattered to
numerous showers that persist into this evening, to include the Wet
Mountains, Teller county and the Palmer Divide. Day time high
temperatures look to stay at or just below seasonal normals, with
the highest temperatures occuring in our far eastern plains where
we`ll see the most sunlight before the front comes through.


Overnight lows don`t look particularly cold for tonight, despite
cold frontal passage. This is mainly due to cloud cover that is
forecasted to stick around through the night for most of us. We will
start to see some clearing out west, where overnight low are
forecasted to get down near freezing.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 425 AM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022

Key Messages:

1) Very good chance for precipitation for much of the area Tuesday.

2) Slightly below normal temperatures throughout the extended period.

Tuesday...The upper low will be located over the Dakotas on Tuesday,
dragging a trough of low pressure back to the southwest across
Colorado. The backdoor cold frontal passage on Monday swung surface
winds around to an easterly direction and forced some llvl moisture
back towards the eastern mts, while ushering in much cooler air.
Upper dynamics will interact with available moisture for another day
of scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms for much of the
area, while the eastern mts and southern border will experience
likely to categorical convection through the afternoon and early
evening. Activity will then taper off quickly by midnight. Plan on
maximum temps in the 60s for the high valleys, and 60s to near 70F
for the plains.

Wednesday through Sunday...Long range models tend to agree on
northwest flow aloft settling in across Colorado and remaining in
place through the weekend as a longwave trough develops over the
eastern half of the country. Meanwhile, an upper low will form over
the Desert Southwest and serve to draw some moisture up into the
Four Corners region. Embedded shortwaves within the northwest flow
aloft will tap into the available moisture, keeping Colorado cool
and producing isolated to scattered diurnal convection mainly tied
to the higher terrain each day. Temperatures are forecast to be
fairly consistent each day with highs in the 60s for the high
valleys and mid 60s to mid 70s for the plains. The one outlier will
be Friday, which models paint as a much cooler day across the
eastern plains due to constant easterly llvl flow throughout the
day, with highs remaining in the 60s. Moore


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022

At KCOS, prevailing conditions will be VFR through the period,
with a low risk of brief MVFR cigs as vcsh develops from 22z-05z.
Also a small risk of a vcts around 00z, though won`t include in
the taf at this point. After precip ends, low VFR cigs may hold on
for much of the night, before slowly lifting Tue morning.

At KPUB, VFR the next 24 hrs. Risk of a vcsh this evening after
02z, though cigs/vis should remain VFR into Tue morning.

At KALS, MVFR cigs will lift 19z-20z, then vcsh develops from
21z-03z. Low risk of a vcts as well after 21z, though chance looks
too low to mention in the forecast at this point. Precip chances
end 02z-04z, though low VFR/brief MVFR cigs may linger through the
night into Tue morning.




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