Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 040834
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
434 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and pleasant weather continues through Thursday. A cold
front will then move through on Friday bringing below normal
temperatures. Dry and crisp weekend on tap behind the front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Tuesday...

High pressure continues to building in from the west bringing
cooler and drier weather for Tuesday.

Mostly clear skies tonight with high cirrus passing, especially
in the northern reaches of the forecast area. Temperatures
overnight will fall back to the upper 30`s for most sites with
some lower 30`s possible in the highest elevations. Most places
will see fog tonight due to the clear conditions, cool
temperatures, and light or calm boundary layer winds from
sfc-925 mb. Fog may be dense at times but will quickly erode
after sunrise. Frost would be in the cards due to these
temperatures, however, with widespread fog and dewpoints that
are not quite below 36 degrees this may only be confined to
isolated areas of the northern and eastern mountains.

Most of Tuesday looks to be mild with highs in the middle to
upper 60`s for the lowlands and 50`s and upper 40`s for the
mountains. Skies mostly clear with passing high clouds. Winds
light and variable in the morning becoming more NNW in the
afternoon and increasing to 5-8 MPH due to afternoon mixing.
Some models are hinting at a mid level clouds deck that may form
in the mountains late in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Tuesday...

Surface high pressure will continue to dominate the local
weather pattern on Wednesday and Thursday, providing for more
dry weather. Wednesday will feature plenty of sunshine. High
temperatures will top out in the mid 60s to low 70s for the
lowlands, with mid 50s to low 60s for the higher terrain. High
temperatures on Thursday will generally be about 5 degrees
warmer courtesy of WAA ahead of an approaching cold front.
Thursday will also have a bit more cloud cover as an upper
disturbance moves through, albeit dry. Did insert fairly
widespread valley fog into the forecast for Wednesday night.
Valley fog will once again be possible Thursday night, but
should mainly be confined to the deeper valleys of VA/WV.
Wednesday night will be on the chilly side, with warmer temps
progged for Thursday night ahead of the front. An isolated
shower or two is possible across SE OH late Thursday night as
the front begins to move through the northwest portion of the
region.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 400 AM Tuesday...

The aforementioned cold front will be moving through the region
during Friday morning. Isolated light showers are possible with
its passage. Did insert SLGT PoPs across the entire CWA to
account for this. Breezy conditions will also occur on Friday as
much cooler temperatures filter into the region. Well below
normal temperatures are progged for Friday through Sunday.
Saturday will be the chilliest day with the lowlands staying in
the 50s for highs, while the mountains remain in the 40s. Plenty
of sunshine is expected for the weekend into Monday, along with
dry weather as surface high pressure remains across the region.
Temperatures warm to a few degrees below normal by Monday. Given
the chilly temperatures, frost will be a concern on Friday,
Saturday, and Sunday nights. Frost could affect much of the area
on Saturday night, with Friday/Sunday nights being a bit more
uncertain and of the patchy nature. Will keep a mention of
frost in the HWO for the time being.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 AM Tuesday...

Current conditions: BKW and CRW are LIFR. HTS and PKB are MVFR.
CKB and EKN are VFR.

Widespread fog is developing especially along the river valleys.
This will continue as clear skies and light winds are on the
table. Forecasting most sites with the exception of CKB to have
some LIFR fog tonight. CKB may only see some IFR fog briefly
before ~12Z as their dew point spread is quite wide.

VFR will return to all sites by ~13Z as fog dissipates. Mid
level deck will form for CKB and EKN and stay during the day and
lower through out the afternoon. EKN may drop into MVFR/IFR
ceilings after ~21Z due to the cloud deck.

Winds will be light and variable becoming more N to NNW by
afternoon with speeds 4-7KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of fog may vary from
forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    TUE 10/04/22
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions possible in valley fog Wednesday night into Thursday
morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LTC/GW
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...GW
LONG TERM...GW
AVIATION...LTC


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