Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 280150

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
950 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

Dry fall-like weather is expected through Thursday as high pressure
builds into the region. Rain and wind associated with the remnants
of Ian may reach our area by late Friday or Saturday, and continue
into early next week.


As of 950 PM EDT Tuesday..

...A chilly Autumn night gives way to a few more clouds and breezy
conditions Wednesday...

Not much change in the current forecast package with the exception
of holding on to some low end PoPs across the northern Greenbrier
Valley and Alleghany Highlands. Most of these showers/sprinkles will
be relatively brief from Droop Mountain/Renick/Buckeye, West
Virginia east toward Mountain Grove/Hightown, Virginia. This
activity is associated with our broad upper level trough which
continues to sit north of region.

One thing to note is the dry air in both the low and mid levels.
PWATS per the 00z RNK sounding continue to hold steady around 0.36
inches which is two one hundreths higher from where we started this
morning. With the drier air in place expect less cloud coverage with
the exception of a few SCT-BKN clouds along the western facing
slopes and across the North Carolina Piedmont as a result of the
northern cirrus shield from Hurricane Ian. Lows tonight will bottom
out in the low to mid 40s areawide with low to mid 30s likely in
sheltered valleys such as Burkes Garden.

Previous discussion...

With the mean broad upper level trough still in place an isolated
shower/sprinkle cannot be ruled out over the Alleghany Highlands
before sunset. Most of the activity remains confined further north
toward the Canaan Valley of West Virginia and western Maryland
mountains where moisture is more prevalent in the low mid levels
with a northwesterly fetch off of Lake Erie.

Otherwise we are looking at a carbon copy to what we experienced
Monday evening. Winds will gradually diminish with speeds out of
west and northwest at 5-15 mph and gusts upwards of 20 mph before
00z. These values will drop to around 5 to 8 mph overnight with
gusts upwards of 15 to 20 mph remaining along the ridges. Dry air
will also continue to filter in from the north and west as a broad
area of Canadian high pressure drifts east into the upper Great
Lakes region.

As a result, expect somewhat lower overnight lows and less in the
way of cloud cover even with the trough nearby. Skies will remain
mostly clear although a thin veil of cirrus may be prevalent
especially in area along and west of the Blue Ridge, as well as,
north of the I-64 corridor into southern Shenandoah Valley. With
that said, expect lows generally in the low to mid 40s areawide
with some sheltered valley locations such as Burkes Garden and
Mountain Lake getting down close to freezing. Patchy frost remains
possible in these locations although the winds should remain up just
enough to avoid any widespread coverage.

By Wednesday, it`s a rinse and repeat forecast. Highs will range
from the mid to upper 50s over the mountains to around 70 out east
as the upper level trough sharpens. With the sharpening trough and a
weak front passing to our north a little extra cloud cover may be
noted over the mountains and in areas east of the Blue Ridge. Breezy
conditions will also remain with winds out of the north at 5-15 mph
gusting 20-30 mph (especially along the ridges) Wednesday afternoon
and early evening. Any impacts from Ian will hold off until later in
the week.

Forecast confidence remains high in the near term period. Some
discrepancy in between the models in regards to cloud cover
Wednesday with dry air in place. For now held with a blend of
hi-res models to central model guidance.


As of 215 PM EDT Tuesday...

Deep trough will be centered over the eastern CONUS as strong
Canadian high pressure begins the build eastward. Meanwhile,
Hurricane Ian will be making landfall along the western coast of
Florida, but still way too far south to bring any significant
impacts locally for the remainder of the work week.

The exact track of Ian beyond Thursday is still quite uncertain,
but among model guidance, the general theme is for Ian to
meander north through the week with clouds increasing on Friday
and possibly some rain beginning to work into the area late
Friday night. Other than some rain from Ian making an approach
late Friday, expect dry conditions for the remainder of the
week. Morning temperatures will be on the chilly side this week
with morning lows in the 30s and 40s with some locations
potentially dropping the near 32F.


As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...

By Saturday morning, the remnants of Hurricane Ian will likely
be inland over the southeastern United States with rain
overspreading the area locally. To the north, high pressure
remains in place and will begin to wedge south as Ian continues
to move north. Wedge will remain firmly in place so looking like
chilly rain with temperatures in the 50s/lower 60s for most of
the area for Saturday and Sunday. Still a bit too early to talk
rainfall amounts, but could see some heavy amounts, especially
along the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge where enhancement
takes place. Remnants of Ian may linger into Mon/Tue next week
as the residual upper low potentially stalls over the upper
south. Due to this, kept rainfall in the forecast through
Tuesday next week.


As of 730 PM EDT Tuesday...

     Dry VFR conditions continue through the valid TAF period...

Good flying conditions look to continue heading into Wednesday with
low level ridging/broadening high pressure building into the region.
Areas of brief BR/brief flight category reductions may be noted
overnight in the river valleys between 09-13z/5am-9am Wednesday
morning although confidence remains low with ample dry air in the
low to mid levels.

The bigger story in the TAF period looks to be the winds. Gusty west
northwest flow remains in place through sunset 00z/8pm with
sustained speeds upwards of 5-15 kts and intermittent gusts upwards
of 20-25 kts. Winds will drop down to 5-10 kts overnight out of the
northwest before increasing and switching to more of a northerly
direct beyond 15z/11am Wednesday morning. Speeds Wednesday afternoon
will range from 5-15 kts with gusts upwards of 20-25 kts especially
along the ridges i.e (along and west of KROA-KBCB-KTNB).

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Mostly VFR flight categories are expected to continue Wednesday
night into Friday morning outside any localized river valley fog.

By late Friday into Saturday, the remnants of Ian start to impact
the region. A/+RA/stratus will likely result in reduced flight
categories by late Friday through at least Sunday, and possibly into
Monday. Overall expect poor flying conditions with gusty northerly
winds and even stronger winds aloft.Please monitor the latest
forecasts on the track of Ian from the National Hurricane Center.




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