Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 040735

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
235 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022

Key Messages:

1. Dry weather will continue through at least early next week
with worsening drought. Info:

2. Cooler late this week with areas of frost possible.

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022

Another quiet night has taken place across the Missouri Ozarks and
far southeast Kansas so far. Overnight lows are expected to get a
few degrees cooler than the observed temperatures as the early
morning progresses, with temperatures reaching the low 40s in the
eastern CWA to the upper 40s to low 50s elsewhere.

Models have proven consistent run-to-run, leading to high
confidence in keeping the forecast generally the same. With
satellite imagery depicting a dry air mass overhead, and models
showing an upper level ridging pattern over the area, expect dry
weather and above normal temperatures in the mid 70s to low to mid
80s today.

Tonight will be similar compared to the past few nights, with
overnight lows in the low 40s to low 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022

Wednesday will mark the beginning of a pattern change, as models
show an upper level low currently over the Northern Plains being
pushed eastward by a shortwave. Despite a cold front pushing
through the area Wednesday through Wednesday night, limited
moisture will keep the area from seeing any measurable

The cooler air behind the front won`t move into the area until the
end of the week, so expect above normal afternoon highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s to continue through Thursday. Friday and
Saturday will bring cooler temperatures, with highs only ranging
in the 60s, and some locations potentially reaching 70. With
overnight lows expected to drop into the low 30s to low 40s, may
see frost in some areas during these cooler nights.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

Little will change with the forecast over the next 24 hours. Clear
skies, light surface winds and VFR flight conditions will prevail.




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