Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 012324
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
623 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022

Dry and mild weather will continue through the remainder of this
weekend as Canadian high pressure dominates. This will keep light
E/NE flow prevailing with a mostly persistence forecast as far as
temperatures are concerned. Thus, expect slightly below normal
values as highs maintain the lower to mid 80s on Sunday while lows
fall back into the upper end of the 40s to lower 50s tonight and
perhaps a few degrees warmer on Sunday night.

The only other noteworthy item to mention is the continued stretch
of very dry weather that has allowed for some level of drought to
gradually return over much of the region. Fortunately, light winds
are limiting the degree of fire danger despite the relatively low
afternoon humidity values. Regardless, this will something to keep
an eye on going forward into October until we see any appreciable
rainfall.

/19/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022

Classic omega block pattern across the Continental U.S. to begin the
work week with a cutoff low located across the Intermountain West, a
large upper ridge anchored across the Great Plains and a remnant
trough associated with Ian across the Mid Atlantic states. For the
most part, this pattern is going to hold strong through the middle
of the work week before the trough out west begins to open up and
quickly eject out into the plains. This will be a moderation period,
early to mid week across our region with temperatures slowly rising
to near normal at night and remaining above normal each afternoon.

The upper trough by late week will have an associated cold front
associated with it that will cool us back down to near normal
daytime temperatures to end the week. Unfortunately, it does not
appear that there will be any available moisture for this next
frontal boundary to work with so the three plus weeks of consecutive
days without measurable rainfall will continue through next week.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022

No changes were made in the 00z TAFS compared to the 18z. SKC will
hold steady through all terminals this evening allowing for VFR
conditions to continue. Only real change overnight will be a
minor transition from VRB winds to more of a northeast pattern
across all terminals between 5-10 kts.

53

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  52  84  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  50  83  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  46  86  50  88 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  49  83  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  47  81  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  51  85  55  88 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  48  84  53  87 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  49  85  54  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...53


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