Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 031307
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
707 AM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Early morning fog, light rain showers and low clouds will diminish
by late morning, leading to generally fair conditions across the
area today with highs in the 60s. Quiet and mostly dry weather
conditions, along with a warming trend are expected for Tuesday
and Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Updated forecast this morning to add light rain showers in the
Helena and Bozeman area. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
550 AM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022 (03/12Z TAF period)

Ample low level moisture will allow for widespread low stratus and
fog across North-Central and Southwestern Montana this morning. IFR
to LIFR conditions are possible at all terminals, especially between
through 14z. Mtn Obscuration will be likely until the stratus and
fog dissipate later this morning, especially at the lower levels.
Expect clear skies and light winds after mid morning. Ludwig

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022/

The upper level low pressure system that has lingered across the
region the past few days is finally moving off to the east this
morning (albeit still very slowly), which has allowed some
clearing of the mid and upper level clouds overnight. However,
this has left plenty of low level clouds, and even some fog,
around the area, so we`ll need to keep an eye on this through the
early morning hours to monitor for dense fog. Given the extensive
stratus deck, widespread dense fog is not expected, but it can`t
entirely be ruled out either.

Any fog and low stratus should dissipate rather quickly after
sunrise as thermal mixing erodes the low clouds. After the fog and
low stratus are mixed out, expect clear skies with just an outside
chance of a rain shower across some of the higher terrain South
and East of a line from Great Falls to Helena.

Upper level ridging will generally maintain control of the weather
over the course of the upcoming week, which will result in fairly
quiet weather through the next week. Temperatures will climb into
the 70s on Tuesday and Wednesday, but will cool into the mid to
upper 60s after midweek as upper level flow becomes more
northerly. Ludwig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  68  43  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  70  42  76  43 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  69  45  74  45 /  30   0   0   0
BZN  65  39  70  38 /  30   0   0   0
WYS  57  27  63  26 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  63  38  68  38 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  69  41  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  62  41  70  44 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING for
northern Blaine County

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls


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