Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KTSA 031629
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1129 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today)
Issued at 921 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

Same story, different day. Sunny skies, light winds and above
normal temperatures are expected again today, with highs likely to
be a degree or two warmer than those seen yesterday. Temperatures
are already running a few degrees warmer than 24 hours ago,
supporting the current forecast highs. Elevated fire weather
concerns will exist again today in the forested terrain areas of
southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, given the dry fuels and
continued low afternoon relative humidities. The existing forecast
and messaging has things covered well, and no update is planned
this morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

The dry weather pattern will persist for about another week. The
upper ridge currently over the area will break down over the next
couple days as an upper level storm system passes to our north.
Some mid level cloudiness and perhaps a sprinkle or two will be
about all we will see from this system late Wednesday into
Wednesday evening. Afternoon high temperatures will remain well
above normal through Thursday, with overnight lows remaining
pleasantly cool.

A cold front will move across the area late Thursday night and
early Friday bringing much cooler temperatures for Friday and
Saturday. Stronger northerly winds and very low dew points
advecting in from the north Friday afternoon will only exacerbate
the fire weather situation given the ongoing drought conditions.

Another band of mid level moisture will move into the area Friday
night, but with an even drier sub cloud airmass in place than
Wednesday, even a sprinkle may be hard to come by in our area.

Temperatures will quickly moderate by late next weekend as
southerly winds return.

Longer range models do hint at a potentially wetter weather
pattern developing about a week from now and possibly persisting
for much of next week. We will just have to wait and see if this
does indeed materialize.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

VFR conditions and wind speeds under 10kts will prevail through
the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  54  87  55 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   87  54  87  55 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   89  54  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   86  46  86  47 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   85  45  85  46 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   83  51  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   88  53  88  54 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   86  51  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
F10   88  52  88  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   87  54  87  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...22


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.