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Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions: 1
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FGUS63 KKRF 261746
ESGSIO
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
210 PM CDT MON SEP 25 2023
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 09/30/2023 - 12/29/2023
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:FLOYD R AT SHELDON IA 1N
SHLI4 12.0 14.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:FLOYD R AT ALTON IA
ALTI4 12.0 16.0 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:FLOYD R AT LE MARS IA NO.2
LMRI4 20.0 21.0 24.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:W BR FLOYD R AT STRUBLE IA 2N
STUI4 14.0 15.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:FLOYD R AT MERRILL IA
MRLI4 12.0 14.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:FLOYD R AT JAMES IA 1NE
JMEI4 26.0 30.0 34.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:LITTLE SIOUX R AT MILFORD IA 3W
MIFI4 12.0 14.0 16.0 <5 16 <5 <5 <5 <5
:LITTLE SIOUX R AT SPENCER IA NO.2
SPWI4 10.0 14.0 16.0 <5 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
:OCHEYEDAN R AT SPENCER IA 3SW
SPOI4 8.0 9.5 10.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:LITTLE SIOUX R AT LINN GROVE IA
LNNI4 18.0 19.5 21.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:LITTLE SIOUX R AT CHEROKEE IA NO.2
CHKI4 17.0 21.0 24.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:LITTLE SIOUX R AT CORRECTIONVILLE IA
CRRI4 19.0 21.0 23.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:MAPLE R AT MAPLETON IA 1SW
MAPI4 21.0 22.0 23.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:LITTLE SIOUX R AT TURIN IA 4S
TURI4 25.0 28.0 34.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:WEST FORK DITCH AT HORNICK IA 1E
HOKI4 20.0 22.0 26.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:PERRY CR AT SIOUX CITY IA 4N
SIOI4 24.0 26.0 28.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:BIG SIOUX R AT WATERTOWN SD 8NW
WTRS2 10.0 11.0 12.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:BIG SIOUX R AT WATERTOWN SD
WBSS2 9.0 10.0 12.0 <5 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
:BIG SIOUX R AT WATERTOWN SD BRDWAY
WBWS2 10.5 11.0 13.5 <5 13 <5 <5 <5 <5
:BIG SIOUX R AT CASTLEWOOD SD 1NW
CSWS2 9.0 11.0 16.0 <5 17 <5 <5 <5 <5
:BIG SIOUX R AT BROOKINGS SD 10SE
BRKS2 9.0 10.5 12.0 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:BIG SIOUX R AT DELL RAPIDS SD 2SW
DERS2 12.0 14.0 15.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:BIG SIOUX R AT SIOUX FALLS SD
SFLS2 12.0 15.0 17.0 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SKUNK CR AT SIOUX FALLS SD 4SW
SIFS2 11.5 15.0 17.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:BIG SIOUX R AT SIOUX FALLS SD NO CL
SXFS2 16.0 18.0 31.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SPLIT ROCK CR AT CORSON SD 1E
COSS2 8.5 11.0 14.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:ROCK R AT LUVERNE MN
LUVM5 10.0 12.0 14.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:ROCK R AT ROCK RAPIDS IA
RAPI4 13.0 16.0 19.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:ROCK R AT ROCK VALLEY IA
RKVI4 16.0 17.0 19.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:BIG SIOUX R AT HAWARDEN IA 4N
HWDI4 20.5 24.0 27.0 <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
:BIG SIOUX R AT AKRON IA
AKRI4 16.0 18.0 20.0 <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
:BIG SIOUX R AT SIOUX CITY IA HWY 77
SXCI4 32.0 38.0 41.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 0930 Z DH12 /DC2309251410/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 09/30/2023 - 12/29/2023
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:FLOYD R
SHLI4 5.0/ 5.1/ 5.4/ 6.1/ 6.4/ 7.1/ 7.3
ALTI4 5.7/ 6.0/ 6.2/ 6.4/ 6.8/ 7.4/ 7.6
LMRI4 9.5/ 9.7/ 9.9/ 10.6/ 12.2/ 14.0/ 14.3
:W BR FLOYD R
STUI4 3.9/ 4.0/ 4.1/ 4.8/ 6.1/ 7.0/ 7.6
:FLOYD R
MRLI4 0.1/ 0.2/ 0.4/ 1.0/ 2.0/ 3.0/ 3.4
JMEI4 8.3/ 8.5/ 8.7/ 9.1/ 10.1/ 11.0/ 11.3
:LITTLE SIOUX R
MIFI4 7.4/ 7.5/ 7.7/ 8.0/ 9.4/ 10.0/ 10.1
SPWI4 4.4/ 4.6/ 5.0/ 5.7/ 7.1/ 7.7/ 8.1
:OCHEYEDAN R
SPOI4 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.3/ 2.6/ 3.1/ 3.6/ 3.8
:LITTLE SIOUX R
LNNI4 5.3/ 5.5/ 6.2/ 6.8/ 8.1/ 8.8/ 9.4
CHKI4 5.9/ 6.2/ 6.8/ 8.1/ 9.0/ 10.3/ 10.9
CRRI4 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.4/ 4.7/ 5.3/ 6.6/ 7.3
:MAPLE R
MAPI4 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.2/ 4.4/ 5.1/ 6.0/ 6.9
:LITTLE SIOUX R
TURI4 6.5/ 6.5/ 6.8/ 7.5/ 8.6/ 9.8/ 11.1
:WEST FORK DITCH
HOKI4 6.1/ 6.5/ 7.2/ 7.7/ 9.3/ 10.1/ 11.9
:PERRY CR
SIOI4 7.2/ 7.2/ 7.4/ 7.5/ 8.0/ 8.5/ 8.9
:BIG SIOUX R
WTRS2 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.2/ 4.5/ 5.5/ 7.3/ 8.3
WBSS2 3.5/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.9/ 4.4/ 5.7/ 6.5
WBWS2 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.4/ 5.9/ 7.8/ 8.4
CSWS2 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.9/ 5.5/ 5.8/ 7.7/ 8.5
BRKS2 2.2/ 2.3/ 2.5/ 3.0/ 3.7/ 5.4/ 6.1
DERS2 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.3/ 3.7/ 4.5/ 5.9/ 6.7
SFLS2 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.5/ 5.3/ 6.1/ 8.0/ 8.7
:SKUNK CR
SIFS2 2.9/ 2.9/ 3.2/ 3.3/ 3.9/ 5.1/ 5.3
:BIG SIOUX R
SXFS2 5.8/ 5.8/ 6.1/ 6.5/ 7.2/ 8.4/ 8.8
:SPLIT ROCK CR
COSS2 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.7/ 1.9/ 2.4/ 3.1/ 3.4
:ROCK R
LUVM5 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.3/ 4.7/ 5.2/ 5.4
RAPI4 6.9/ 7.0/ 7.1/ 7.4/ 8.1/ 8.7/ 8.8
RKVI4 4.9/ 5.0/ 5.2/ 5.5/ 6.7/ 7.5/ 8.0
:BIG SIOUX R
HWDI4 11.1/ 11.2/ 11.6/ 12.3/ 13.5/ 15.0/ 15.4
AKRI4 4.2/ 4.3/ 5.0/ 5.7/ 7.9/ 9.7/ 10.3
SXCI4 11.3/ 11.5/ 11.9/ 12.6/ 14.1/ 15.8/ 16.3
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 0930 Z DH12 /DC2309251410/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 09/30/2023 - 12/29/2023
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:FLOYD R
SHLI4 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0
ALTI4 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0
LMRI4 8.4/ 8.3/ 8.2/ 7.5/ 7.4/ 7.4/ 7.4
:W BR FLOYD R
STUI4 3.5/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3
:FLOYD R
MRLI4 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
JMEI4 7.8/ 7.8/ 7.8/ 7.7/ 7.7/ 7.6/ 7.6
:LITTLE SIOUX R
MIFI4 7.2/ 7.2/ 7.0/ 6.7/ 6.7/ 6.7/ 6.6
SPWI4 3.8/ 3.6/ 3.5/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.3
:OCHEYEDAN R
SPOI4 1.7/ 1.6/ 1.5/ 1.4/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3
:LITTLE SIOUX R
LNNI4 5.0/ 4.9/ 4.2/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0
CHKI4 3.6/ 3.4/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0
CRRI4 4.3/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.0/ 4.0
:MAPLE R
MAPI4 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0
:LITTLE SIOUX R
TURI4 6.4/ 6.4/ 6.2/ 6.1/ 6.0/ 6.0/ 6.0
:WEST FORK DITCH
HOKI4 6.0/ 6.0/ 6.0/ 6.0/ 6.0/ 6.0/ 6.0
:PERRY CR
SIOI4 6.1/ 6.1/ 6.1/ 6.0/ 5.9/ 5.8/ 5.8
:BIG SIOUX R
WTRS2 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9
WBSS2 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5
WBWS2 5.1/ 4.9/ 4.9/ 4.7/ 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.6
CSWS2 4.7/ 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.4/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.1
BRKS2 2.2/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 1.9/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8
DERS2 3.0/ 3.0/ 2.7/ 2.4/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3
SFLS2 4.0/ 3.9/ 3.5/ 3.4/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3
:SKUNK CR
SIFS2 2.3/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2
:BIG SIOUX R
SXFS2 5.7/ 5.7/ 5.4/ 5.3/ 5.2/ 5.1/ 5.1
:SPLIT ROCK CR
COSS2 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4
:ROCK R
LUVM5 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2
RAPI4 6.5/ 6.5/ 6.4/ 6.3/ 6.3/ 6.3/ 6.3
RKVI4 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.6
:BIG SIOUX R
HWDI4 10.9/ 10.9/ 10.7/ 10.6/ 10.4/ 10.4/ 10.4
AKRI4 4.0/ 4.0/ 3.8/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5
SXCI4 11.2/ 11.2/ 11.2/ 11.0/ 11.0/ 11.0/ 11.0
:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.
.END
$$
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