Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Ohio RFC

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FGUS61 KTIR 301639
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WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH
1200 PM EDT Friday September 30 2022

THE FOLLOWING IS THE 30-DAY WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER

.WATER RESOURCES STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...

The October outlook calls for near to above normal streamflows for the eastern Ohio Valley where some streamflows remain above normal from recent heavy lake-effect precipitation and the remnants of Ian are forecast to bring rain, with near to slightly below normal streamflows elsewhere.

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.HYDROLOGIC FLOOD AND DROUGHT POTENTIAL...

The remnants of Ian are expected to impact the southeast Ohio Valley early in October, with near to slightly above normal flood potential in this area given the risk for some heavy rain. Elsewhere, flood potential is near to slightly below normal.

The Ohio Valley was drought-free near the end of September according to the US Drought Monitor, but abnormally dry conditions exist across parts of central/western KY and northern IN given short term dryness there over the past month, with some expansion possible in the western Ohio Valley given a signal for a drier start to October.

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.PAST 30 DAY HYDROLOGICAL AND METEOROLOGICAL REVIEW...
RAINFALL DEPARTURES...

Rainfall was highly variable across the Ohio Valley for the month of September, with pockets of both well above and well below normal preciptation.

Generally 0.5 to 2 inches of rain fell across portions of western KY through central KY into southeast OH/southwest WV, which was anywhere from 10 to 75 percent of normal. Rainfall was also below normal across portions of the far northwest Ohio Valley in sections of eastern IL into central/northern IN and far northwest OH, where 1 to 2 inches fell (25 to 75 percent of normal).

In contrast, pockets of 3 to 5 inches (110 to 200 percent of normal) occurred from roughly southeast IN into southwest/central Ohio and western PA. A prolonged period of heavy lake-effect rain also contributed to an area of 5 to 7 inches of rain along the southeast shore of Lake Erie, which was 150 to 200 percent of normal.

https://www.weather.gov/images/ohrfc/dynamic/latest30day.jpeg

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...

Soil moisture at the end of September was generally near normal across the Ohio Valley, with much of the region falling between the 30th and 70th percentiles.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/soilmst/w.shtml

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...

Streamflows were generally near to below normal across the Ohio Valley during the last week of September with the exception of locations southeast of Lake Erie in portions of northwest PA and far western NY which were much above normal.

https://watermonitor.gov

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.ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTION AND OSCILLATION FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT MONTH...

TELECONNECTION/OSCILLATION PATTERN
ARCTIC OSCILLATION
Positive = weak correlation in early autumn

NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
Neutral = weak correlation in early autumn

PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION
Becoming Positive =  Near to below normal

ENSO - EL NINO/LA NINA OSCILLATION
La Nina= weak correlation in early autumn

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

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.TECHNICAL DISCUSSION...

CPC outlooks for the month of October suggest odds tilted toward below normal precipitation for much of the western Ohio Valley, with equal chances of below or above normal precipitation elsewhere. The remnants of Ian are expected to bring widespread precipitation to portions of the southeast Ohio Valley during the first few days of October, but medium range models show drier west to northwest flow developing behind Ian for early and possibly into mid October, with no strong signal for above or below normal precipitation in the long range models for the latter half of the month. Remnants of tropical systems do sometimes influence the Ohio Valley during the month of October, and if any additional tropical remnants impact the region later in the month this could have a large impact on rainfall and streamflows.


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VISIT OUR WATER RESOURCES WEBSITE AT http://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/WRO

IN ADDITION TO A 30-DAY STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...YOU CAN ALSO OBTAIN A
60- AND 90-DAY OUTLOOK AT THE WEBSITE

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