Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 252133

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0431 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022

Valid 271200Z - 031200Z

...D3/Tue-D4/Wed - Southeast Oregon and Vicinity...
Mid-level flow will strengthen as a trough approaches the Northwest
on Tuesday. Dry/downslope flow is expected from central Oregon to
northwest Nevada. Fuels are more moist in Nevada, but fuels are
critically dry, at least locally, across central and Southeast
Oregon. Therefore, critical probabilities have been added for
portions of central and southeast Oregon.

On Wednesday, stronger mid-level flow will overspread the region and
stronger surface winds are expected. Therefore, critical
probabilities have been added across southeast Oregon and far
southwest Idaho.

...D4/Wed - Gulf Coast Region...
A cold front will move off the Gulf Coast Monday night with a very
dry, continental airmass in its wake. As Hurricane Ian moves
northward in the eastern Gulf, low-level northerly flow will
strengthen and maintain a dry airmass across the Gulf Coast states.

Other than a few isolated thunderstorms, much of this region has
been dry over the past few weeks. This extended dry period, followed
by several days of dry northerly flow should lead to critically dry
fuels across much of the Gulf states by Wednesday.

...D4/Wed - D7/Sat - Great Plains...
A prolonged period of lee troughing in the Plains from the middle of
the week into next weekend will likely lead to gusty winds in
various regions across the Plains states. The location of these
winds and any potential overlapping with areas of low relative
humidity remains too uncertain to add probabilities.

However, there will likely be some periods with elevated to critical
fire weather conditions in the Wed/D4 to Sat/D7 range.

..Bentley.. 09/25/2022

...Please see for graphic product...

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