Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FNUS75 KCYS 211903
FWSCYS

Spot Forecast for Balsam Draw...BLM
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
103 PM MDT Wed Sep 21 2022

If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service at (307) 772-2227

.DISCUSSION...

Light rain showers will continue under mostly cloudy skies for the
remainder of this afternoon. Easterly winds of 10-20mph with gusts
up to 30mph are possible when rain showers are present. Expect the
winds to be gusty and erratic up to 40mph as persistent rain showers
with isolated thunderstorms occur overnight. Rain showers will be
present on Thursday through the afternoon as winds shift to the
southeast at 15-25mph, with gusts up to 35mph at times.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
                    showers through the late afternoon.
CWR.................6 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 61-63.
Min humidity........47-50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 10 to 17 mph increasing to around 20
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 15 mph shifting to the east
                    around 18 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (47300 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........58  65  72  77  83
Weather cov.....        SCH CHC SCH
Weather type....        RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1
Temp............60  61  61  61  60
RH..............53  49  49  51  55
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..10  12  14  17  20
20 FT wind gust.13  17  21  25  29
Mix hgt (kft)...4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  E   E   E
Transp wind spd.8   10  12  15  18
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2
SDspl kt-ft/100047  47  47  47  47

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    rain showers through the night. Slight chance
                    of thunderstorms overnight.
CWR.................24 percent.
LAL.................2 until 2100, then 1 until 2400, then 2.
Min temperature.....Around 47-49.
Max humidity........87-90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 13 to 22 mph. Gusts up to 40
                    mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early in the evening. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    overnight.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 21 to 28 mph shifting to the south
                    early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (15300 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........88  89  90  91  84  78  72  66  60  54  58  61
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH             SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
LAL.............2   2   2   1   1   1   2   2   2   2   2   2
Temp............57  54  52  50  49  49  49  49  49  49  49  49
RH..............59  66  69  77  80  83  83  86  86  86  86  83
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S
20 FT wind spd..21  22  21  20  18  18  17  17  17  16  15  13
20 FT wind gust.32  32  32  32  35  37  38  35  29  24  18  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S
Transp wind spd.22  25  28  28  26  23  21  21  22  23  23  23
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2
SDspl kt-ft/100023  23  23  23  23  23  15  15  15  15  15  15

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers through the day. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................13 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 2.
Max temperature.....Around 57-59.
Min humidity........36-40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 13 to 18 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 21 to 22 mph late in the afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......8800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 23 to 26 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (50900 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
                    (195600 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........65  64  63  63  61  59  57  54  50  47  41  35
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2   2   2
Temp............50  46  46  48  51  53  55  56  56  56  58  58
RH..............86  83  83  83  77  71  66  57  51  44  40  36
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W
20 FT wind spd..13  13  14  16  16  17  17  18  21  22  22  22
20 FT wind gust.14  16  21  24  24  24  24  25  29  31  32  33
Mix hgt (kft)...2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.8
Transp wind dir.S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W
Transp wind spd.23  23  24  25  25  25  25  25  26  26  26  25
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/100051  51  51  51  51  51  196 196 196 196 196 196

$$
Forecaster...Wills
Requested by...Rich Hayner
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2218342.3/CYS
.DELDT 09/21/22
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL dstanley@blm.gov,rhayner@blm.gov,wycpc@firenet.gov


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