Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FNUS73 KMQT 250839
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Spot Forecast for ISRO Pile Burns...National Park Service
National Weather Service Marquette MI
439 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 EDT on September 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Rain showers will become widespread this afternoon and
overnight. Winds shift to the northwest mid-afternoon up to 15 mph
and strengthen to 30 mph tonight. Humidities will remain high with
the cool and wet weather.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers in the morning, then rain showers in
                    the afternoon. Patchy fog early in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........51 at ignition...Max 55.
RH..................92 percent at ignition...Min 87 percent.
Dewpoint............49.
33-foot winds.......Winds west at 3 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Light winds becoming northwest 12 to 14 mph.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming northwest 10 to 11 mph.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 300-1700 ft
                    AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor (8) at ignition. Max...good (349.0).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 3.
Rainfall amount.....0.27 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......1.4 decreasing to 0.8 late in the morning.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........86  84  78  78  83  90  92  94  94  95  95  96
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY DEF DEF LKY LKY
Weather type....RN  RNF RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20  30  40  50  60  70  80  80  70  70
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............51  50  50  51  52  53  53  53  53  53  54  54
Dewpoint........49  48  48  49  49  50  50  50  50  51  50  50
RH..............92  93  94  92  89  89  89  89  89  90  89  87
33 ft wind dir..W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  NW  NW  NW
33 ft wind spd..3   3   3   9   9   9   10  10  10  14  14  14
20 ft wind dir..W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  NW  NW  NW
20 ft wind spd..2   2   2   7   7   7   8   8   8   11  11  11
Wind gust.......5   5   5   10  10  10  11  11  11  16  16  16
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6
Haines index....3   3   3   3   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3
VIndx kt-ft/100.1   1   2   4   8   13  14  13  16  20  26  35
Ceiling (kft)...1.4 1.8 2.2 1.8 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain showers likely in
                    the evening, then chance of rain showers
                    overnight.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Min 48.
RH..................Max 89 percent.
Dewpoint............48.
33-foot winds.......Breezy. Northwest winds 16 to 28 mph shifting
                    to the north 28 to 29 mph after 3 am.
20-foot winds.......Breezy. Northwest winds 13 to 22 mph shifting
                    to the north 22 to 23 mph after 3 am.
Mixing height.......1700-2600 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Good to excellent (511.0-983.0).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.40 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......0.9 increasing to 2.1.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........95  94  95  95  97  96  95  95  96  95  95  95
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).70  70  70  70  60  60  60  50  50  50  40  40
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............54  53  53  53  53  52  52  52  52  51  50  50
Dewpoint........50  50  50  49  49  48  48  48  47  47  47  46
RH..............87  89  89  88  86  85  85  85  85  86  87  86
33 ft wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N
33 ft wind spd..18  18  18  24  24  24  28  28  28  29  29  29
20 ft wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N
20 ft wind spd..14  14  14  19  19  19  22  22  22  23  23  23
Wind gust.......21  21  21  26  26  26  30  30  30  31  31  31
Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.4
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VIndx kt-ft/100.51  70  88  96  98  93  80  66  57  59  69  80
Ceiling (kft)...0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Max 50.
RH..................Min 79 percent.
Dewpoint............43.
33-foot winds.......Windy. North winds 26 to 30 mph.
20-foot winds.......Windy. North winds 21 to 24 mph.
Mixing height.......2700-3900 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Excellent (899.0).
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.06 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......1.8 early in the morning.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........94     95     93     94     92     92
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).40     30     30     30     40     40
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............49     48     48     48     49     48
Dewpoint........45     44     44     44     43     42
RH..............86     87     86     83     80     80
33 ft wind......N 30   N 30   N 29   N 28   N 28   N 26
20 ft wind......N 24   N 24   N 23   N 22   N 22   N 21
Wind gust.......32     32     31     29     29     28
Mix hgt (ft)....2700   3200   3200   3400   3800   3800
Haines index....3      3      2      2      3      3
VIndx kt-ft/100.90     106    101    99     110    112
Ceiling (kft)...2.0    1.8

$$
Forecaster...NJL
Requested by...RXB2 Justin Yoniles
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2218575.0/MQT
.DELDT 09/25/22
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL robert_yoniles@nps.gov


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