Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FNUS71 KPHI 190843
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Spot Forecast for Quail...Maryland Forest Service
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
443 AM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on September 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Low pressure passes by north of the region late today into early
Tuesday dragging a weak cold front through the area late tonight.
This will result in a gradual wind shift from SW to NW. Showers
and storms today and this evening will remain NW of the burn site.
High pressure returns for Tuesday and Wednesday. A strong cold
front moves through Wednesday night into Thursday followed by high
pressure building in for the weekend.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 87.
Min humidity........50 percent.
Wind shift..........None expected.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......5500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 15 mph increasing to 18 to 20
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (86700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
ADI.................8 early in the morning increasing to 79 in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........10  14  17  21  24  28  29  31  32
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............72  76  81  83  84  86  86  85  85
RH..............81  71  63  57  55  50  50  51  50
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..7   7   8   9   10  12  12  10  10
20 FT wind gust.10  12  13  14  16  17  17  16  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 1.4 2.4 3.2 4.3 5.3 5.5 5.4 4.5
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.7   7   8   10  14  15  15  18  20
ADI.............8   13  25  35  54  64  64  79  77
Vrate kt-ft/1K..5   9   17  29  52  69  72  87  76
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  GD  GD  GD  GD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
CWR.................10 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 67.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Wind shift..........Gradual shift from SW to NW
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 8 mph in the evening and
                    overnight becoming light, then becoming
                    northwest around 5 mph early in the morning.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 16 mph shifting to the west 5 to 7
                    mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (21300 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (1400 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
ADI.................2 to 31.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........33  34  36  34  33  32  30  29  28  25  22  19
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   10  10  10  10  0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   10  10  10  10  0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............82  79  76  74  72  71  70  70  70  69  68  68
RH..............56  62  71  76  84  87  90  90  90  93  93  93
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   NW
20 FT wind spd..9   8   7   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.14  13  10  10  9   9   10  12  12  10  8   7
Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.SW  S   S   S   S   S   SW  W   W   W   W   NW
Transp wind spd.14  15  15  15  16  15  12  6   5   5   5   7
ADI.............31  10  7   7   7   7   5   3   2   2   2   3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..21  9   7   8   8   7   5   2   2   1   2   2
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
CWR.................10 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........47 percent.
Wind shift..........None expected once winds settle out of the NW
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......4200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 7 to 16 mph increasing to 17 to 18
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (65000 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
ADI.................3 early in the morning increasing to 69 in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........16  13  25  22  19  17  15  13  11  11  11  11
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............68  69  69  73  76  78  80  81  82  82  82  81
RH..............93  90  97  84  74  64  56  51  47  47  47  49
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..5   6   6   8   8   8   9   10  12  10  10  9
20 FT wind gust.7   8   10  15  15  16  17  20  21  21  18  17
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.4 0.7 1.6 2.3 2.9 3.4 3.8 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.7   8   7   14  14  13  10  13  15  16  17  18
ADI.............3   8   7   29  40  45  35  46  57  61  65  69
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2   3   4   19  27  32  30  42  54  58  61  65
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  FR  GD  GD

$$
Forecaster...Johnson
Requested by...Gilbert. Wagner
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2218289.0/PHI
.DELDT 09/19/22
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL gilbert.wagner@maryland.gov


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