Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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Spot Forecast for Lasso fire...US forest service
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
831 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0900 EDT on September 30.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

Rain will spread into the area from the southeast after 10AM today with
the chance of rain increasing to 80 percent by 5PM. Showers, heavy at
times, will continue into Saturday as the remnants of Hurricane Ian
stall over the southern Appalachians. Occasional light showers continue
into Monday night.

Winds will be from the north to northeast today around 10 mph with
gusts as high as 25 mph today and tonight. Wind speeds diminish on
Saturday with gusts below 15 mph by afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Chance of rain late in
                    the morning, then rain in the afternoon.
CWR (0.01 in).......increasing to 80 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Min humidity........69 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 8 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 21 mph
                    in the late morning and early afternoon.
Mixing height.......2500 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northeast 17 to 21 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (24300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (43300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................36 to 46.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........89  92  95  96  99  99  99  99  99
Weather cov.....SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY DEF
Weather type....RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............20  30  40  40  40  60  70  70  80
Temp............53  55  56  57  58  59  59  59  59
RH..............71  70  70  69  70  70  70  73  74
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..8   9   9   10  10  9   8   8   9
20 FT wind gust.14  16  16  17  17  14  14  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...1.6 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.7
Mixng wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N
Mixng wind spd..17  18  20  20  20  20  20  20  21
LVORI...........3   3   3   1   3   3   3   3   3
ADI.............36  46  39  41  43  41  40  38  36
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRate mph-ft/1K.28  37  41  46  50  46  44  41  34

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Rain.
CWR (0.01 in).......increasing to 100 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 52.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to
                    around 24 mph.
Mixing height.......1400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northeast 23 to 31 mph increasing to 26 to 35
                    mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (33100 knot-ft).
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................28 to 42.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........100    100    100    100    100    100
Weather cov.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type....RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............80     100    100    100    100    100
Temp............59     57     56     55     54     53
RH..............76     89     92     97     100    100
20 ft wind......NE 10  NE 11  NE 13  NE 14  NE 15  NE 15
20 ft wind gust.17     18     21     23     24     24
Mix hgt (ft)....1800   1700   1900   1800   1800   1500
Mixing wind......N 23   NE 29  NE 33  NE 33  NE 30  NE 28
LVORI...........3      4      4      4      4      4
ADI.............41     32     37     37     33     31
Haines index....3      2      2      2      3      3
VRate mph-ft/1K.41     49     64     60     53     42

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Rain.
CWR (0.01 in).......100 percent decreasing to 80 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 61.
Min humidity........91 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 6 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph
                    early in the morning.
Mixing height.......1600 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northeast 15 to 23 mph decreasing to 8 to 13
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (8900 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (27700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................12 to 28.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........100    100    100    100    100    100
Weather cov.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type....RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............100    100    90     90     80     80
Temp............53     53     56     58     60     61
RH..............100    100    100    95     93     90
20 ft wind......NE 12  E 11   E 9    E 8    E 6    E 6
20 ft wind gust.20     18     14     13     11     10
Mix hgt (ft)....1400   1200   1100   1300   1600   1400
Mixing wind.....NE 23  NE 15  NE 10  NE 9   NE 9   E 9
LVORI...........4      5      5      5      5      5
ADI.............26     22     14     14     15     14
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
VRate mph-ft/1K.32     18     11     12     14     13

$$
Forecaster...Silverman
Requested by...Ethan smith
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2218873.0/RNK
.DELDT 09/30/22
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Joe.burn2@usda.gov


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