Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
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000
FOPZ14 KNHC 202040
PWSEP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MADELINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142022
2100 UTC TUE SEP 20 2022

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MADELINE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

20N 115W       34  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

20N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/JELSEMA



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