Rangeland Fire Danger Forecast
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FNUS63 KFSD 251721
RFDFSD

Rangeland Fire Danger Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1221 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022

UPDATE: Latest observed soundings at Aberdeen and Bismarck show
very dry air located above 925 mb - well within the expected mixed
layer this afternoon. This very dry air is expected to overspread
the region this afternoon. Therefore, we are now expecting lower
dew points over most of northwestern Iowa as well as along I90 and
Hwy 34 in most of SD. Therefore, the Very High Fire Danger has
been expanded to the north and east to include De Smet, Brookings,
Madison, Sioux Falls, Worthington, Spencer and Storm Lake.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Critical fire weather concerns present
themselves today as we`re anticipating an extended period of warm,
dry and windy conditions this afternoon. Soundings suggest that
we`ll mix rather deep this afternoon up to 700 mb at times. Slight
cold advection in the afternoon will help to steepen the low-lvl
lapse rates making it easier for 30 knot winds to mix down. Dew
points this morning are already in the upper 30s West River, and
it won`t take long to begin to mix even lower values across the
area. HREF probabilities of critical fire weather conditions are
pushing 70% across much of the James River valley areas and into
portions of NW Iowa this afternoon. Projected RH values will range
between 20 and 30 percent through the area, and when combined
with the high probabilities of 25+ mph winds, this will lead to
critical fire danger especially in areas of prolonged drought and
increased agricultural activity.

If there is a positive, winds may begin to relax a bit after 4pm
through south central South Dakota where the lowest RH is
expected, though it may take until sunset for conditions to really
improve especially further east into Minnesota and Iowa.

A red flag warning will be issued this afternoon, with the caveat
that any slightly higher RH near 30 percent could be mitigated by
outperforming wind gusts. Also, if temperatures do warm just a
shade higher, then it`s possible RFW conditions may need to be
expanded further east.

Consider postponing burning due to the very high fire danger.

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ089-098-NEZ013-014-
SDZ038>040-050-052>071-252030-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O`Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Nobles-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-
Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-
Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-
Hutchinson-Turner-Lincoln-Bon Homme-Yankton-Union-

...VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER...

The Grassland Fire Danger Index will reach the very high
category this afternoon. Very poor weather conditions and
very low moisture content of grasses, and other dry
organic material on the ground, indicate that dangerous
burning conditions exist. Fires will spread rapidly and
show erratic behavior. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...The Grassland Fire Danger Index
will reach the high category.

The grassland fire danger product reflects fire danger for native
grasses. It is not intended for cured agricultural crops, nor
will it reflect conditions in road ditches which have been mowed.


$$

MNZ071-072-080-081-090-097-252030-
Lincoln-Lyon-Murray-Cottonwood-Jackson-Pipestone-

...HIGH FIRE DANGER...

The Grassland Fire Danger Index will reach the high category
this afternoon. Unfavorable weather conditions and low
moisture content of grasses, and other dry organic material
on the ground, indicate that there is a high potential for
a fire to spread.. Outdoor burning should be restricted to
early morning or evening hours, when wind speeds are usually
lower and the relative humidity is higher.

OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...The Grassland Fire Danger Index
will reach the moderate category.

The grassland fire danger product reflects fire danger for native
grasses. It is not intended for cured agricultural crops, nor
will it reflect conditions in road ditches which have been mowed.


$$


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