Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 262028

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
128 PM PDT Sun Jun 26 2022


Hot conditions are on tap today and Monday with temperatures
reaching 100 degrees in some western Nevada valleys. Winds will
be on the increase this week as low pressure develops along the
west coast. This will allow for temperatures to ease back slightly
for mid to late week. Looking ahead to the 4th of July holiday
weekend, signs are pointing to dry and breezy conditions with
temperatures cooling further.



A building ridge over the west will push high temperatures 5-10
degrees above normal today and Monday. With mid-afternoon temps
pushing the century mark in lower valleys, it may be a good idea to
keep outdoor activities limited to the morning or evening hours.
Otherwise, take frequent breaks out of the sun and be sure to drink
plenty of water.

As mid and upper levels warm and dry it will cap thunderstorm
development, so while a few cumulus buildups have developed and
a sprinkle is possible, thunderstorms are not expected in the
Sierra and western Nevada. There are still isolated storms
possible into central and eastern Nevada, however.

An approaching trough off the Pacific northwest coast will bring an
enhanced afternoon westerly zephyr wind the first half of next week,
likely peaking on Tuesday with gusts 30-40 mph. A few locations may
see similar speeds on Wednesday, but it won`t be as widespread.
Otherwise, anticipate typical afternoon breezes of 20-30 mph. This
will correspond with a very dry air mass, bringing fire weather
concerns. Please see the fire section below for additional details.
Lakes may also become choppy in the afternoon, something to be aware
of if you head out in your kayak or SUP in the morning. There may
also be some patchy blowing dust into the Basin and Range Tuesday.

Ensembles clusters suggest the pattern will remain rather stagnant next
week with general troughiness along the west coast. This will keep
temps near normal and dry, southwesterly flow over the region. We`ll
see typical SW-W afternoon breezes each day, gusting 20-30 mph.

Looking ahead to the 4th of July Holiday Weekend, simulations are
pointing toward a deepening trough off the west coast. This may drop
high temperatures below normal with continued afternoon breeziness.
At this point, precipitation and thunderstorm chances appear less
than 10%, but this can change depending on the placement of the
trough. -Dawn



There are cumulus buildups out there as we continue to warm this
afternoon, so anticipate thermals bringing some turbulence,
especially across mountainous terrain. A few sprinkles are possible
from these buildups, but thunderstorms are not expected in the
Sierra and western Nevada. There are still isolated storms
possible into central and eastern Nevada, however.

Otherwise, typical afternoon SW-W winds each day gusting 20-25 kts
the week ahead, expect for up to 30 kts at terminal sites Tuesday.
Winds may bring some patchy blowing dust into the Basin and Range
(KLOL, KNFL, KHTH) Tuesday.

Density altitude may be a concern today and once again Monday
afternoon as high temperatures reach 95-100+ degrees in lower
valleys and 80-90 degrees in Sierra valleys. -Dawn



Hot temperatures today and Monday before returning closer to normal
Tuesday onward. This may further cure fuels, but from current
information from fire parters, fuels are still not considered
critical in a large enough area to need fire warnings.

A few buildups this afternoon could produce a sprinkle or two,
but thunderstorms are not expected (less than a 10% chance). These
very weak and spotty showers may bring some erratic outflow wind
gusts up to 35 mph. We could still see isolated thunderstorms in
central Nevada eastward, which our friends at NWS Elko would have
more information on.

An uptick in SW-W afternoon winds can be expected the week ahead, in
particular on Tuesday. Winds gusts of 25-30 mph are expected each
day, with 30-40 mph afternoon gusts Tuesday. We could see a few
locations with similar speeds Wednesday, but it won`t be as
widespread. This is corresponding with a very dry air mass, single
digit afternoon humidities in lower valleys and poor humidity
recoveries. The dry and breezy conditions are certainly a fire
weather concern. -Dawn


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