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000
FXUS65 KREV 312151
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
251 PM PDT Fri Mar 31 2023

.SYNOPSIS...

Tranquil weather today with sunny skies and dry conditions. Then
our next storm arrives with strong winds Saturday and snow late
Sunday into Monday. Travel impacts are likely in the Sierra and
possible in Western Nevada early Monday morning. Snow showers and
chilly conditions Monday and Tuesday will give way to a drying
trend the rest of next week with a gradual warming trend on tap
too!

&&

.SHORT TERM...

We don`t know about you all, but we are thoroughly enjoying this
sunny, dry Friday. Only small chance (10%) for a shower will stay
well north of the region, along the OR border. Highs will reach into
the 50s for the lower valleys, while Sierra valleys warm into the
30s to lower 40s. While the westerly breezes will pick up later this
afternoon and evening, it still makes for a pretty nice day out
there.

We will get one more day of these warm-ish temperatures on
Saturday, but the winds will be noticeably stronger along with an
increase in mid to upper level cloud cover as the next storm
meanders towards the Sierra and western Nevada. The strongest winds
on Saturday afternoon will be along and north of Interstate 80 with
wind gusts nearing 50 mph for some areas. There may be some areas of
blowing dust, especially downwind of dry lake beds, by the afternoon
and evening. Winds will be strong enough to create choppy lake
conditions for Pyramid Lake and Lake Tahoe. A bit of moisture ahead
of the main storm will sneak into the region Saturday afternoon as
well, with increased chances for showers from Tahoe northward
towards the OR border. Any snow or rain/snow mix showers that
develop would only linger through the early evening, but could
create slick road conditions where they pop up. These showers and
winds will be the precursor to the main part of the storm for Sunday
- Monday.

-Edan

.LONG TERM...Sunday Onward...

After a much needed break from the active weather, one more storm
for the foreseeable future will arrive late Sunday night.
Compared to previous storms we`ve had this year, this one will
provide less in the way of snowfall but just as windy. Current
models are showing a 45-50 kt 700 mb jet Sunday afternoon over the
Sierra, making ridge winds sustained at 50-60 mph gusting 90+ mph
out of the southwest. Lower valleys could see gusts of 45-50 mph,
with wind prone locations primarily along US-395 gusting over 60
mph. After Sunday, winds look to stay breezy Monday afternoon, but
by Tuesday we`ll see lighter winds through the remainder of the
week.

Snow will first arrive in the Sierra and NE CA Sunday night, with
the bulk of the snow falling throughout the day Monday. There may be
a few showers into Monday night but otherwise they will have moved
out of the region. More light snow showers may develop Tuesday
afternoon in the Sierra as another trough rolls down from the north.
Thankfully, snow totals aren`t nearly as impressive as previous
storms, with the Tahoe Basin likely to see 2-6" below 8000` and 7-
10" above 8000`. The Sierra crest in Mono and Plumas counties could
see 2-6", while western NV valleys have an 80% chance of up to 1".

From Wednesday onward, we`ll progressively get warmer each day into
next weekend. For the first time in a while, all is quiet on the
GEFS EFI plumes, and ensembles are showing (and agreeing) on a
potential ridge building in after next weekend. That winter storm
door is very close to closing!

-Justin


&&

.AVIATION...

* Sustained westerly FL100 winds today, with the strongest near and
  north of I-80. Light mountain wave turbulence remains possible
  near and downwind of the Sierra. Otherwise, VFR conditions with
  only 10% chances for a stray showers near the OR border.

* Westerly winds will increase Saturday morning with FL100 winds
  around 30-40 kts by 21z. Sunday morning FL100 winds increase even
  more with westerly winds between 45 to 60 kts by 21z Sun.

* A few snow showers may pop up Saturday afternoon from Tahoe
  northward as the next storm approaches the Sierra and western
  Nevada. The higher snow rates and potential for VIS reductions
  will push in late Sunday into early Monday morning with the brunt
  of the storm. Sierra terminals will see more snow, while Western
  NV terminals will have a rain/snow mix.

-Edan

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 11 AM PDT Sunday for
     Lake Tahoe in NVZ002.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to 11 AM PDT Sunday for
     Pyramid Lake in NVZ004.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Sunday NVZ004-005.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 11 AM PDT Sunday for
     Lake Tahoe in CAZ072.

&&

$$