Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 030145
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
745 PM MDT Thu Apr 2 2020

.UPDATE...
Overall the forecast remains on track through next Thursday, with
very minor updates to the snowfall amounts along the Northern
Rockies on Friday. A continued gradual warming trend is expected
throughout next week, bringing the region closer to normal
temperatures for the season. -TP

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Unseasonably cold conditions continue today and tonight with most
locations seeing minimum temperatures drop into the single digits
and teens once again. Isolated to scattered showers will continue
to affect the forecast area for the remainder of the week and
into the weekend, with the best chance for precipitation remaining
over the mountains. Temperatures should trend back toward
seasonal averages by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...

Updated 530 PM MDT Thu Apr 2 2020 (03/00Z TAF Period)

VFR conditions will generally prevail through tonight with just a
few isolated light snow showers, mainly near the mountains. MVFR
conditions continue over KCTB through 03Z, as some lingering low
level clouds remain over the area. Variable mid-level cloud-cover
may occasionaly cause some mtn top obscuration at times tonight as
well. -TP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 PM MDT Thu Apr 2 2020/
Tonight through Saturday Night...A broad upper level trough will
remain over the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rocky Mountain
Region through Saturday. This system will keep temperatures below
seasonal averages with isolated/scattered showers at times. As is
typical for early spring and late winter periods, most
precipitation is expected over the mountains. Shortwave energy in
the upper trough brings a moderately strong wave through the
region Friday night for a somewhat better chance of accumulating
snowfall at lower elevations. However, only light snowfall amounts
are expected. The upper wave embedded in the upper level trough
sweeps over the forecast area Saturday morning, with models
developing shortwave ridging behind the wave and allowing for
clearing skies and mostly dry conditions by late Saturday
afternoon. mpj

Saturday night through next Thursday...large scale troughing pattern
will generally dominate over the Western CONUS/Canada, but periods
of transient ridging (i.e. late Saturday evening and then again on
Wednesday) are expected. Precipitation will generally be limited to
the mountains of Southwest Montana and along the Continental Divide
over much of the period, but some plains/valley precipitation can`t
be ruled out (especially over Southwest Montana Sunday morning, and
then Monday morning through Monday afternoon). Any precipitation
over these periods will likely be showery in nature, with the
potential for some isolated lightning flashes/strikes, especially
Monday. High temperatures will remain well below climatological
norms on Sunday, but gradually moderate to near climatological norms
by Monday (given the overall pattern and models performance over the
past week I woudln`t be surprised if high temperatures remain
slightly below normal from Monday through Tuesday). By Wednesday
(possibly into Thursday) temperatures look to rebound to above
normal across the entire Northern Rockies; however, current
indications are that another push of cooler air could work back in
for the end of the work week. - Moldan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  14  45  22  43 /  10  20  20  10
CTB  10  42  17  36 /  10  40  10  10
HLN  18  45  23  46 /  10  60  50  10
BZN  16  43  22  46 /   0  30  30  10
WYS   3  33  10  38 /  10  20  10  10
DLN  16  39  22  43 /  10  30  20   0
HVR  13  45  22  40 /   0  10  20  10
LWT  13  41  22  39 /   0  40  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls



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