Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 270926

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
225 AM MST Fri May 27 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather will remain through the middle of next week
with above normal temperatures lingering through today. A weather
system will bring breezy to windy conditions Saturday into Monday
with cooler, near or below normal temperatures through Tuesday
followed by hotter readings once again.


.DISCUSSION...A trough of low pressure will deepen over the western
United States this weekend into early next week. This will result in
slightly cooler daytime temperatures and gusty afternoon winds,
especially Saturday afternoon initially. Wind speeds will be even
stronger Sunday and Monday afternoons. Refer to the Fire Weather
section in this product for more details.


.AVIATION...Valid through 28/12Z. Clear skies/SKC conditions thru
28/02Z, then FEW-SCT clouds AOA 20k ft MSL thru the remainder of the
forecast period. SFC wind generally less than 10 kts and variable in
direction thru 27/18Z and again aft 28/04Z. Between 27/18Z and
28/04Z, SWLY/WLY SFC wind at 12-18 kts and gusts to 22-30 kts.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Above normal temperatures will prevail through
Saturday, with near normal temperatures Sunday into the middle of
next week. Afternoon gustiness is expected again today due to strong
daytime heating. A weather system will then move across the Great
Basin this weekend into early next week and result in breezy to
windy conditions across southeast Arizona during the afternoon and
evening hours Saturday through Monday. Elevated fire weather
conditions are possible Saturday over portions of Cochise County. On
Sunday and Monday elevated fire weather conditions are expected
areawide, with the potential for areas of critical conditions east
of Tucson. Less Wind in then expected next Tuesday and Wednesday.

Late next week there is a slight risk for moisture over New Mexico
to move westward over portions of southeast Arizona. This may result
in a slight chance of a few thunderstorms over far eastern areas as
early as next Thursday. Confidence is low at this time. However, the
models continue to hint at the potential for this to occur and if it
does there would be the threat of dry lightning and strong, gusty
and erratic outflow winds with any thunderstorms that do develop.



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