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Hydrologic Outlook

Hydrologic Outlook
ALC033-043-049-059-071-077-079-083-089-095-103-TNC051-103-127-182300-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
312 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

...Heavy rain and flooding likely this week...

A wet pattern will set up across the Tennessee Valley for much of the
week, with several rounds of heavy rainfall affecting Northern
Alabama and portions of Southern Middle Tennessee beginning late
Monday. Throughout the week ahead, a frontal boundary will stall
across the area, though there is still some uncertainty as to
exactly where this feature will end up. The heaviest rainfall axis is
expected to be along this stalled frontal boundary, where anywhere
between 7 to 10 inches of rainfall are forecast. Isolated higher
amounts are possible.

While rainfall is literally forecasted for every day next week, the
greatest potential for heavy rainfall and flooding will be from
late Tuesday through at least Thursday, if not lingering into
Friday. Given the wet ground conditions in place from recent
rainfall, much of this expected 7 to 10 inches of rainfall will
immediately convert to runoff. This will overwhelm the natural
drainage processes, leading to flash flooding potentially at the
onset of the heavy rain, and later in the week, widespread river
flooding. Again, while there is still some uncertainty in exactly
where the front will stall, nearly all of the river gages on the
Tennessee River (and those on tributaries that feed into the
Tennessee River) will likely reach flood stage at some point this
week. The question will be how many will reach Moderate Stage (or
higher). Lingering flooding on the Tennessee River will begin late
this week, and will likely linger into the following week as well.

Residents across Northern Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee
should continue to monitor this unfolding weather situation over the
holiday weekend and stay tuned to further forecast updates from NWS
Huntsville!

For additional hydrologic information, visit our website at
weather.gov/huntsville.

$$

Stumpf



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